Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

I hope it buckets down over your catchments so that your fearless leader doesnt have to pinch water off us country folk

Sniper wrote:ILS, I suspect it will be similar to last night. Radar over-estimating. Anything over 5mm will be a bonus before tomorrow!

Hmm I hope you are wrong It does look a bit better than last night though, and it is coming out of the bay.

How is it in Horsham Mantis?

Your thoughts on the relaxation of water restrictions?

Getting steady rain up here but the best of it is slipping to the south/east of us. Anticipate 20mm+ falls through the upper Yarra Valley etc but may struggle to get more than 5mm up here.

Gotta be good for more runoff with things up there nice and damp.

BTW would guess there is a fair bit of bright banding going on with the radar which is why the totals aren't as great on the ground as the radar would suggest.

Steady rain here in BW. Bit sideways, so a may be missing the gages a little. Looks like still a bit to come tho.

Definite bright banding. Only 2mm here so far after 12mm overnight.

I wonder if we will get convective showers when the sun appears.

Sniper wrote:How is it in Horsham Mantis?

Your thoughts on the relaxation of water restrictions?

Dropping them down to stage 1 is a bit weird me thinks. Allowing people to water lawns with sprinklers is inviting wastage.
I can picture the gutters running now with sprinklers going on nature strips.
GWMW is only in the business of selling wate eh.

I share the same thoughts. I know you guys have been really struggling, but to go down to Stage 1 straight away, heading into Summer seems odd.

Anyway, back on topic, had some light shower activity in CBD. Nothing to get too excited about. Geez Rhyll has done well, 25mm to 9am and a further 12mm. Does anyone know how the Island is going with water?? I vaguely remember reading an article that they were getting water trucked in at some stage!!

Flood Warning out for the Kiewa River

Love that the location of the desal' plant is under water.. Can they build a dam there!! ~60mm down there so far. ~18mm here out of the sequence.

Had 4mm up here now since 9am. Rather a miserable day with drops blown by a freezing wind and fog on and off. It's one of those days when you would prefer it to rain properly and be useful rather than spitty stuff.

Some rather impressive falls developing through parts of south Gippsland/Upper Yarra for the last 30 hours. Upper Lang Lang is up to 42mm (19mm to 9am and 23 since, and still raining heavily). Suspect similar totals are now building around Warburton. Must be some strong runoff developing in these spots. An amazing comparison with the northwest burbs where the 2 day total sits on 1-2mm.

BTW can see tomorrow front now rapidly moving up SW of Mt Gambier. This should be the best in the sequence for the south.

You can say that again Hillybilly.... 4mm here since Monday and 3mm since Yesterday lunchtime which is what I expected, glad I had low expectations for this system for here or else I would of been bitterly dissapointed in saying that still am I guess. Glad the dams have done well. Another chance tomorrow of rain after that looks like the tap may turn off for a while.

Watch for a trough building in the easterly sometime next week. Not a full dry spell but a nice fine spell of 2-3 days. Plenty of time before then.

Melbourne water figures still not out. Corruption!!!

Looking wet next 36-48hrs. Today been a fraction too westerly here but lucky to get a few periods of rain.

8.5mm for the system

Lake Eildon has just cracked the 30% level today for the first time since 2005! Hoping we'll make it to 40% before the spring rains end and GMW starts draining it. Inflows will pick up again over the next few days with extra water from the major rivers flowing into it as a result of good rain again this week.

Mansfield weather recorded 23mm to midnight with a further 5 mm since. showers there currently.

Excellent B!!! Looking forward to Wes's update tomorrow in the rural forum.

Hail and thunder tomorrow but I think we may start off with a period if rain tomorrow morning.

4.5mm to add to the 2mm poured out last night. Baro kicked up to 1000 hPa, cold WSW most of day, good rain in LV -looked to be around 16mm on wet topsoil so tomorrows rain should kick things along in the Latrobe River.

Thursday and Friday look promising out this way by LAPS, cold air pool over the ranges and SW fetch, good for dams.

AUSSKY wrote:Torrential rain and 1cm hail along the Calder this evening around 6.30pm - couldn't see the mountain it was so heavy and traffic slowed to 60kmh!!! up to 20.2mm so far since midnight - a couple of long and very heavy showers tonight added significantly to the total...one of the creeks in town (with a cutesy little bridge over it that runs along the front of a house) is just at the top of its banks...I think they need to move their cars out onto the potholed road (result of so much rain). Swale drains in my street all have water in them - I'd like to see them full to the top!!

daggett - you haven't been buying land have you?? No 6 sold...

It had better not be sold

Nothing bought yet but putting in offers, Found out on Monday that number 9 has been sold...Spoke to m y builder on the weekend and we can do what we want for around $200K

i am going to have to get a move on and find out what is happening

Looks like all we have had here is 16mm here Trentham is certainly better!

Strikes me that there is a weak warm front moving into Vic ATM. The SW-NE aligned cloud band marks a regions of strong warm air advection in the mid levels. Not much weather with it - perhaps some light showers/drizzle. Up here it has been warming all day and is currently near 10C.

We had 18.4mm to 9am this morning. Mostly drizzle since then on and off, but just starting to become heavier this evening ahead of the approaching front. Some quite gusty winds starting to develop at times as well.

So, scattered showers and isolated cold-air thunderstorms developing with the change, possibly tending to rain areas. Thunderstorm activity should be mostly associated with the frontal system and trough feature. The cold pool moving into the state with the trough should create good instability. As previously mentioned, there is widespread LI values at -1 to -2 tomorrow. Northeast is in with the best chance honestly IMO, during the afternoon.

Great to hear Jake. What is your YTD figure?
Agree with you about storm activity tomorrow. Anywhere from North Central east will be in the box seat for any instability. West Gippsland on Flood Watch. As Karl mentioned earlier this afternoon, the Desal plant like be a lake!!!!

Edit: Just checked 06z stormcast. Some -4's around Yarrawonga and -2's almost touching Melbourne. Will be a case of watch the skies folks!!

Light shower activity at the moment. Popped up out of nowhere, which is a nice surprise

Sniper wrote:Light shower activity at the moment. Popped up out of nowhere, which is a nice surprise

Yeah just saw that...a bit strange for this time of night, hopefully a sign of things to come

Some good moisture around for those cells to bob up. As DJ mentioned this evening about warm air advection, lets hope this is a preview for a wet day tomorrow!!