Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

GFS this morning keeps the instability over us right up until the change on Monday night...so going to be very active for a while though today and the weekend may see most of the action on the northern outskirts..

Depends how quickly and deep the seabreeze develops and how far it pushes inland. This will determine who gets what out here.

Slack steering will make chasing easy.

A few thundery showers out near Ballarat and castlemaine meandering there way E to E/SE...early start!

I expect those to intesify on the next few hours as heating increases

Shear should resolve more SE as the day goes on.

And latest visual has the band of Accas all the way back through Western bass Strait past Mt G..

Am surprised to see the early showers around Macedon this morning. Didn't really expect anything in central areas today with the instability much better further north. Still think today is pretty marginal for us, but certainly a chance. Should see plenty of action to our northeast.

Should be some very photogenic storms out of this system, but I think rainfall totals will be patchy with hits/misses. There uppers are very warm and the surface trough is overlaid by a solid upper ridge. These situations typically give pretty isolated but slow moving storms.

Is getting really humid up here - DP up to 12C and been rising steadily.

BTW mesolaps suggests things will kick on overnight. Could be one of those event where storms don't follow the solar heating

(BTW the potential for a very hot day/night with this event is still evident. Kalgoorlie broke it's October and November minimum temperature record yesterday so some exceptionally hot air with this system and also 44.4C in Roebourne. Suspect cloud may cap things in Melbourne but further north and west it could be a different story)

It is a certainty to rain here about 5pm as I'm hoping to finish some work out in the front garden tonight.
I saw some of that early cloud development in the distance while driving to work so it could be a very interesting afternoon.

It's great to finally see a virtually stationary trough in Vic! I've only been here nearly 2 years.........
Will definitely be heading out after work tonight tomorrow avo knocking off early from work.
Can see the fibrous tops to my nw. Dp's already into double digits pretty much across the whole state,
no wonder we are seeing some activity this early.

Im hopeing to head off around 2pm to chase. THinking Maryborough way atm, any other ideas or recomendations?

Hinzey commented to me that the nnw will have steeper lapse rates so you might not have to go too far Rikki.
I think any cells that get organized will be in open air, easy to see, slow moving. Way better chance tomorrow too

No to far meaning i can stay in Bendigo??? Or head north more towards Pyramid hill way? Anyway i'll prob play by eye. See whats happening around 2pm. It all depends on how big this truck is today and how long it takes to unload as to when i can head out...

I think the next 4 days Rikki you wont have to go too far at all..good thing is clear air this morning allowing for heating and also to visual where storms are developing. Wait for the sounding and the BOM chart and see what they indicate..

Looking good up north of Yarrawonga/ southern central NSW atm, wish I had these next few days in the dong.

Been taking pics of the high Ac here at work (broady). Obs have been good for this hazy day, also seeing the development towards Ballarat/NW up on the obs deck.

Some quite chunky convection about still but awaiting the freshies this afternoon. The seabreeze could really kick off some enormous storms to the north and northwest as we go SEly later this afternoon...

Melbourne on the cusp, but it is so exciting to have some action about the place!!!

It's already fairly warmish outside and next Monday most suburbs are forecast to reach 35. Wait and see, but that's much earlier than last November's high of 35.4 on the 12th.

15 in Frankston dropped 5 degrees from 20 with a SW wind but doesnt seem to have affected any where else as yet
27 at Melbourne Airport....

warm is has slowly begun to push down with the city now on about 24, the airport has been at the mid 20's for a bit now, with southern areas still at either, high teens or low 20's. Frankston's coolness really shows how cool the bay still is.

Got nice convergence between those N and S winds and a nice temp gradient over the CBD.

norfolk wrote:Frankston's coolness really shows how cool the bay still is.

They only got to 35.9 when the rest of us suffered in 46/47 degrees on Feb 7. Even cooler down Phillip Island way thanks to the water.

Moorabin Airport is about 24 which isnt that far from Frankston which is on 15 that is a big difference.. So if you drove from Frankston to Mentone there is about a 9 degree difference

Pretty impressive temp differences on the coast. Nearly 10 degrees diff between bayswater and frankston. Not sure what that'll do to the storms later tonight. Beautiful day here. Almost enough to get a tan if you get to be out in it. Expecting temps to reach 28 or even 29 here this afternoon currently on 26.6 according to my thermo.

Interesting that Avalon is only at 19, yet they're usually the ones who get the higher temps first.

The fields have started to bud in a matter of speaking. Wait another hour to find out where to go to i think.
Interestingly there is a small grass fire around here atm, and the smoke is blowing due North....

I have no info on that fire Rik.

Some isolated cells appearing in VIC now. One encroaching the border near Echuca whilst another firing up over Mt. Buller.

As good as today looks, tomorrow looks far superior IMO!

It has begun! Cu build up to NE/N/NW of here. Once it pops