Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Looking like a wild and wet week next week particularly through southern areas. I think Jakes post sums it up for me: Hope you don't mind Jake

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Sunday:
Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen on Sunday ahead of another strong front. We should see cloud increase from the west, but generally partly cloudy conditions ahead of the main cloud associated with the frontal system. Isolated showers are possible in the northeast i'd say, but rain areas and isolated thunderstorms should develop over the southwestern region from about midday.

Monday:
The front comes shooting through on Monday, turning strong to gale force northwesterly winds more westerly, but at a similar strength. I still think a Severe Weather Warning will be issued for the Sunday night/Monday period. Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms over the state will move through with widespread showers to follow, mostly on and south of the ranges, with local hail and cold-air thunderstorms thrown into the mix aswel. Squall lines I think to will be a feature on Monday, persisting well after the rain band too. Another thing is we should see colder temperatures finally develop, and snowfalls finally on the resorts bringing them back to life, as well as snow down to 850-900 meters in general.

Tuesday:
Another strong cold front should come flying through with the persisted widespread showers extending throughout and tending to rain areas south of the ranges, particularly southwest and Gippsland region. Isolated thunderstorms should also develop near the change again, and follow the rain with hail developing as well, particularly for southern parts. Squall lines again I fear will be a thing to watch for. Winds in general should be strong to gale force west to northwest shifting southwesterly following the frontal system. Snow as well continuing to fall thanks to the colder temperatures down to about 800 meters.

Wednesday:
We should still have significantly strong southwesterly airflow reaching gale force at times, so expect to see scattered showers on and south of the ranges with isolated showers in the north, clearing in the northwest. Local hail and thunder as well should continue in the south.

Further Outlook:
Most models seem to agree that a high pressure system will move over New South Wales on Thursday, extending a ridge into Victoria allowing for some clearence. Morning drizzle or isolated showers will clear from the coast to a mostly sunny day. It's a little messy after that with perhaps another system developing on the weekend, and hopefully something interesting on the Monday as I will be doing work experience with the forecasters from then.

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Couldn't agree more with above so why try to do it better when you can't

BTW I think the wind forecast on the bays is understated for next week. 30-40 knot NW winds developing Monday increasing probably 40-50 knots for a period later Tuesday as we go more WNW/WSW.

Rainfall will be determined on how SW we go in the outlook but it is looking more WSW so not a huge drop. Just more psychotic winds.

Looking very wild and wooly the next few days.

EC continues to present very showery, windy W winds Monday shifting more SW into late Tuesday and Wednesday. But what is interesting now, each run I have seen, it keeps weakening the high pressure ridge and pushes it well north of us. I think this will mean another cold front might be able to keep showery weather going Thursday and then allow the stronger low pressure system and upper trough to move faster into our region by late Friday for a wet weekend. A bit of time to go however but looking promising.

US has general falls of 10-25mm over a wide area, increasing through many southern region and touching near 50-100mm about the NE ranges and SW and SE coasts. A very wet end to winter down there.

Melbourne should see more wind to begin with in this system, touching 30 knots tomorrow and increasing 30-40 knots on Monday with a period of showers coming into play during Monday. Can't see the hail and thunder focus really til about Tuesday for us but along the coastal fringe, particularly the SW it will be well and truly underway. Winds should be strongest Tuesday.

And more snow!!!

Karl Lijnders wrote:Looking like a wild and wet week next week particularly through southern areas. I think Jakes post sums it up for me: Hope you don't mind Jake

No probs mate, all good. Thanks for using it as well

I will stick with what I've got atm and good summary mate. Looking like the goods, but very windy!.

Just thought I would mention that yesterday to 9am we had 5mm, and this morning to 9am we had 2mm thanks to quite moderate showers last night.

At the moment, things are slowly getting windier, and they should be around 40 knots and locally higher reaching up to 100 km/h with gusts this afternoon/evening. The BoM have issued that SWW which I said they would. Still looking very good for some areas, particularly southern (southwestern) and northeast. It will be a windy system mostly, but scattered showers and patchy rain developing in the southwest later today is likely. Small risk for isolated thunderstorms overnight there too.

And regarding Thursday Karl, I think you may be right, it does seem to have a more of a sustained southwest flow, looks like a front will slide south of the state IMO as that high pressure system you mentioned moves a little north and weakens slightly. Good pick mate. Now lets see if it happens.

A real spring morning, heaps of people out and about. If next week comes off dams could top 30%!

Getting very windy here now with NNW gusting up to 33 knots (over 60kmh) Bar is down to 1003 and temp now at 17.5c. Looks interesting for the next two or three days, lets hope we can get some rain. Only 41mm's this month average is 72mm's.

Well as expected, thunderstorms are possible in the southwest later, here it is officially from the BoM:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 10:46 am Sunday, 23 August 2009,
Valid until midnight on Sunday, 23 August 2009.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the southwest this evening and overnight as a cold front moves into the west of the state. Damaging wind gusts are likely with any thunderstorms with possible destructive gusts with thunderstorms on the change, particularly near the coast.

A seperate severe weather warning is current for damaging winds across the Western, Central and Alpine districts as northerly winds increase ahead of the front.

The low pressure system looks pretty intense on the sat image...I think the winds are likely to be as strong as Friday.

Anyone have an idea of when exactly this change is going to hit Melb?

I have to be on set for a big shoot for the bob hawke movie in the city on tuesday - what is the weather going to be like then? - they were planning to shoot the large crowd/speech scenes..would be interesting if there was thunder with all those people in the open.

Its being shot outside the dallas brooks hall as far as i know, and they were also calling for extras to be in the crowd so if you want to go along and have a squiz, your most welcome.

I will be on the "period" cameras circa late 70s

Very mild one up here today with a max of 13.7C. We are not getting the record heat of up north, but rather a record lack of cold . Got windy a few times, but not nearly as strong as Friday last week.

Looks very windy the next 72 hours - though I'm not expecting a lot of rainfall from the first of the fronts up here (the air mass is just too dry in the low levels). EC has just 3mm for the eastern burbs of Melbourne and LAPS pretty similar - the bulk of the rain looks like hugging the west, the northern slopes and the northeast where 10mm+ looks pretty likely.

It does look progressively better Tuesday and Wednesday though again this whole sequence looks like delivery about the coast and ranges.

There is some pretty cold air with this system, though nothing special for winter (850T to about -3). Should kick off a few coldies with hail and thunder but not low level snow.

The wind is realy starting to kick into gear here stuff going everywhere looking forward to another good week of weather here but all this rain is not so good for working outdoors thurs and fri were right off for work could be more of the same for the next few days

Very windy this afternoon and still fairly windy now. I'm fairly lucky to be sheltered from severe, damaging wind gusts where I am although it still gets very windy and we do get trees down around the place on the odd occasion. Haven't had one down for a while now but you can hear the crash from inside the house and you know one has gone down. Aside from that we do get a lot of limbs down that can take out power lines. Hopefully that doesn't happen because it can be quite a few hours before power gets restored in that situation.

Looks like NW winds dominating yet again so my area should be in the firing line for more good rain (with any luck). 30mm between now and next Sunday would get us to average for the month for the first time since last December.

Started to rain here but from looking at the clouds today (twas a nice and partly cloudy day apart from a slightly blowy wind) it seemed to be like a more traditional winter system was coming whereas last Saturday it felt like thunderstorm weather with the cloud formations.

DarkEye, very much looks like a squall line on it's way. Not a heavy line, but it is well defined. And it wont be the last this week.

It's been very windy here all day, persisting currently, and I would say about 50 km/h with gusts to 60 km/h atm. That should continue to strengthen overnight with the change in the early morning. The radar is looking good to with a big chunk of squally shower activity and embedded lightning/thunder. Will be an interesting night!

The next few fronts I agree will be more producive instead of this first one, but I must say its looking interesting as well from Friday, will have to watch that, GFS has been on to it for a while, changing a bit though on the whereabouts of the rainfall.

EDIT: Interesting to see on the lightning tracker there was a rogue lightning strike near Geelong, not sure if that was an error or what.

Just an error Jake.

I think we will see the winds increase during the next few hours in Melbourne. Certainly a lull currently but we will be battered through the morning with damaging gusts about after around 9am tomorrow persisting.

Not much weather tomorrow, just a few showers in C VIC with the chance of late thunderstorms in the south of Central VIC.

Should see a rainband develop Tuesday with moderate falls across the south.

I think showers will persist right through til Friday morning and these should accumulate over time.

10-30mm in Melbourne for the week looks fair.

Yeah relatively calm here at the moment. I have noticed that the pressure has remained constant for the past few hours. I would expect it to start dropping again soon.

KL do you think the winds will be as severe as Friday?

I think the winds will be as strong as Friday but moreso Tues/Wed. I think they will be more prolonged and every burst of showers or storms that move through will pack a punch.

Could be quite an event.

I expect the strongest winds with showers to be nearer to 125kmh.

Sounds good, Tuesday looks very exciting...looks as though it will be a very wild day.

Hi Guys,

Winds have died down a bit here. Temp is 13.4c wind from the NNE 15.8 KM/H Gusting to 19.4KM/H Pressure is 1002.2.

Jase

Shaping up as a decent event..going to get wild and wooly again.

Nice area of rain down on the WC..should be a good one tomorrow with pretty much everything again....including some of us missing out.

wind speeds up around 50km/hr highest gust thus far 86km/hr considering where pretty protected from the N/NW winds it must be getting up there on open land! also i only need 4mm this month to get average rainfall looks like this will happen! that will make 2 month in a row of above average rainfall this hasnt been done for somtime hopefully this trend continues

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Wimmera, Central, West
and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.

Issued at 10:13 pm EST on Sunday 23 August 2009.

Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system over the Southern Ocean is generating a strong
northwesterly airflow across Victoria. An embedded cold front will move through
Bass Strait Sunday night and early Monday with further fronts expected during
the first half of the week.

Damaging winds averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts around 100 km/h are
forecast for the Wimmera, Western and Alpine Areas forecast districts and parts
of the North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland
forecast districts tonight and during Monday. Peak gusts may reach 120km/h in
Alpine Areas.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
- People should not park or shelter under trees.
- Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
- For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday.

Just had a look at the National Loop. The cloud coming up from the low looks to be slowing making its way over to Western Vic, but what is interesting is that the line of cloud from Eastern Vic/NSW that spans across to Western Aus seems to be falling down from the NW and almosts looks as though it will mix with the cloud coming up from the LPS.

Will this mean additional instability once the cloud mixes (if it does mix)? Also, may this be why we haven't seen the strong winds as yet?

Just to add, my parents were travelling up to Echuca early this afternoon and they made a mention of how amazing the Cumulus looked on the way up there and said they had 'never seen anything like it before'. Apparently it was very widespread and defined, very strange considering that they are not really overly interested in the weather.