Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

I don't like how the last rain band and the one coming through the west at the moment is falling largely in the ocean Move more east damn it!

the cu field is getting it's act together.... http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

Hey everyone, back from our little trip away. We were entertained by more than just a light and sound show at Sovereign Hill Saturday night, mother nature put on a much more spectacular show which worked in unison with what we had paid to see to make for a rather exciting evening. Only a small shower where we were, big heavy drops of tropical rain which was quite brief late on Saturday afternoon. To our south and north however we watched some beautiful cells slide past us and head towards Melbourne. I got a bit grumpy with my husband because he wouldn't let me go online. I kept saying, "But look at the sky, honey! I neeeeeed to see the radar!" LOL

Here's a few pics for you (as best I could take from a caravan park!):

Storm just skirting to the south, we caught the very edge of it:




Storm to our north, looked like a mini-atomic bomb!




Back edge of the storm as it headed away towards Melbourne and provided an ongoing light show for us for many hours into the evening:



Now I'm off to catch up and read everything I've missed - 68 pages??? Goodness me you lot can talk when there's a bit of rain around!!!!

Lol Yeah lily. Nice pics by the way!


Late Max as I expected last night winds tending NE across Melbourne now not quite the 35c I said last night but did mention cloud may play a part as it did earlier on and seabreeze or the southerly took longer to knick off but still looks to be a late Max could still see it climb as late as 730pm may still touch 31 or 32c in Melbourne

Uhhh karl, do any of those pics look familiar????

Good to see so many pics of late.

Recently we lost Omnicam and the PRMYC has its cam on limited access due to perverts using it over summer, so the best view of the city and bay have gone bye bye.

I can now see some explosive convection to the NW as that line approaches! Things are starting to get interesting, though temps have cooled a little, should'nt be a problem.

my one question is, what time do we expect the temps to start cooling off? got a bbq tonight, would be nice if i can make it through the night with just shorts touch warm at the moment.

This system now reminds me of a lot of systems we saw here in the spring and summer months of the late 1980s/early to mid 1990s period. Squall lines were once common at this time of year and pre frontal convection was also a feature. I remember as a kid watching towering Cbs coming over the horizon and covering the horizon from south to north. Later on you'd get a massive temp drop, squalls and short lived but intense rainfall. If it came through at night the sound and light show was often spectacular. Looks like we could be in for this again.

Recent years have seen such low humidity ahead of fronts like this that to get an event like this has become almost unthinkable. Getting a little excited now.

AmaroK wrote:my one question is, what time do we expect the temps to start cooling off? got a bbq tonight, would be nice if i can make it through the night with just shorts touch warm at the moment.

It won't cool off until after the front moves through around midnight. The temperatures are unlikely to be particularly cool until tomorrow morning IMO.

Some activity starting NW of Bendigo

Hi all,

Had a nice breeze but warm sun today would have been about high 20's at most, it seems the front is just coming my way now judging from the sat pics I've been looking at.

Interesting that Clyve has commented that the discontinuity (on which the storms in the northwest are focusing) takes the form of a warm front. Is a very strange set up, and guess the warm front label "fits".

Off for a walk and then (hopefully) an evening of storm watching - though I suspect the action is going to be pretty late.

PS Mesolaps does have 10-15mm around Melbourne.

Wow, moving fast, I am bloody excited!!! The sat image looks great, it is so humid and it is just ready to explode out there!!! A bit like Friday but we have a more substantial trough to fire it up!!!

Well after speaking to Anthony in Birchip and Rikki in Bendigo I think as this 'warm front' laced with convection moves in to humid air, the convection is becoming deeper and more organised closer to the surface. Some convection is currently being viewed over the ranges to the north but no visual here at this time.

Hoping for around 15mm to bring the total up to 60-65mm for the event which will be useful ahead of a few warm dry days late week.

Sea breeze set in late arvo to quench things down here atm. Got to 28.5C but now below 24C and (although lighter) the breeze is still around. General mid level non-threatning cloud about makes me feel that any activity here will be along the front line early tomorrow - if we're lucky. Would be glad to be proven wrong as we pretty much lucked out with the rare moist air opportunity provide over the past 5 days.

Very good conditions. Expect that line of convection to fire up soon. A thunderstorm N of Warrnambool atm is heading straight for me... looking good, with more storms behind it!!!

27/20 almost right through southern Vic, the lack of any wind, we havent had a single gust all day here, has been a godsend. Now we just wait and see what she does, but boy i love the trajectory, should be a good 4 hours maybe more of solid activity..

Jake is that convection surfaced based or mid level AccAs?

Power Storm wrote:Very good conditions. Expect that line of convection to fire up soon. A thunderstorm N of Warrnambool atm is heading straight for me... looking good, with more storms behind it!!!

Good stuff! I hope you get a big one down there....interesting to see that the rain tends to be breaking down at a certain point in the NW. We can't forget about the famous Melbourne donut effect, which will almost definitely come into effect tonight at some point!!!

Would make sense that it is a warm front with 37c dry and gusty NW winds behind it and 27c clam and humid ahead of it very interesting stuff.

Very hot and dry up in the Nw which is reason why the NW stuff hasn't done much at all, but storms in the Sw are big and juicy due to high Dps, stronger forcing and more moisture though atmosphere.

Things will get interesting after 9pm as have said all day

Will be interesting to see how far south the Warm front reaches or if it stalls along rangers

Interesting 9pm-1am period coming up

Anthony very hard to tell atm, lots of cloud not covering it all ahead of the trough. We have lightning now too to my west in the distance! I'd say mostly mid stuff atm, but further W it looks surface based!

Lots of CG's, getting very close... I am outside now till its gone...

Unbelievable outside, humidity at 80%!!! 25/21 in Coldstream wow

Sky looks good. 24c and 67% humidity here in Moorabbin.

I don't like the path that the showers are going on the radar though.

Dp's generally 11-17c in melbourne at the moment but whats up with Coldstream sticking out with almost at 21c? Strange how that stands out

Johnno wrote:Dp's generally 11-17c in melbourne at the moment but whats up with Coldstream sticking out with almost at 21c? Strange how that stands out

I'm not sure Johnno, it doesn't feel hot here, but it is definitely watery in the air... Coldstream sits in a valley so maybe the low lying nature makes it more humid.

So far we have had 2mm this weekend. Country has dried out dramatically with these hot days so am hoping we get something out of this next front tonight/tomorrow.