Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Sounds good to me, fingers crossed. However I would prefer to have just one day hot and the rest moderate!

Well looking like a beautiful start to the week allready, nice 25 outside. Looking like it could get a touch too warm for my liking over the next 7 days though, anything over 30 at this time of year is a little silly.

Interesting to note storm cast does predict some rain in small amounts over the state in the next week or so, with a few areas over very low LI's. Is there any moisture expected in the system? Could see a few isolated events around the state assuming there is enough moisture in the uppers.

Boy this event just keeps getting bigger and longer.

Now I know this wont be a record breaker in Melb, but for the Much of the Se its is going to be a long hot 7-10 days.

I still see Melb getting around 5 30c or more days this week so it is going to be quite warm, and most days will be sunny with some convection on the Hills to the north and maybe one or 2 days over us.
I don't see any rain for the next week around here though, and only the odd shower or storm on the divide or the SBF if it reaches a fair way inland.
Bay side and coastal folk will only have a warm week but spare a thought for the inland

From Sunday on should see temps of 35c plus with temps at and over 40c from mid week for up to 5 days in a row with over nights only dropping into the 21-23c Its going to be HOT HOT

Amazing Day with Clear skies gusty Se winds and 22c last cool day for a week or so I feel

Few forecasts to look at are very impressive for this time of year, and up to 10c+ above average for close to a week. Should see this heat got to Sunday next week, thought post these for record sake I think this will be a decent heat event

Mildura
Min12 Max33 Saturday
Min20 Max35
Min20 Max36
Min20 Max38
Min23 Max40
Min23 Max40
Min23 Max41 Friday 13/11

Echuca
Min13Max33 Saturday
Min16Max35
Min16Max36
Min17Max37
Min19Max38
Min18Max38
Min18Max38 Friday 13/11

Melbourne
Min13Max30
Min17Max31
Min18Max32
Min18Max32
Min18Max27
Min17Max31
Min17Max33

No Record breaker locally but should see some records go in Nw Vic and SA for most days above .... in a row .... etc

Ew, why are people happy with the prolonged heat? I think days of 25-28 would be a lot more pleasant, you get your warmth and you get your sun. I hope the sea breezes play a part in these temperatures for Melbourne. November 11th, 12th and 13 last year were 32-35C and you get over it fast.

A whole week, I hope this rubs a week off summer then.

Strange day it was actually warmer in the City than Essendon airport and Melbourne Airport even though they city is alot closer to the bay having the seabreeze effect normally on these days Melb apt and Ess apt normally record a higher temp than the city

Yers living on the bay I should have pleasnat nights, a different story inland.

I think the models are working gradually towards a major low pressure trough originating out of inland AUS with showers and thunderstorms developing through the week, before retracting inland as another centre of high pressure develops late week. This will send the very hot air down for late week into next weekend with temps climbing into the higher 30s throughout with some resolution of thunderstorms later again as another burst of instability works down.

Still seeing groups of ducks in V shapes travelling south through the sky, saw some today at Robyn's and it is interesting that the signs nature are throwing out are all pointing to more normal conditions, in my eyes anyway. But more of that in climatology.

Yep, still thinking isolated showers/thunderstorms from Monday during the afternoons/evenings, starting in the west and ranges.

I am guessing very isolated? More likely on the ranges I am thinking.

Melbourne Airport @ 22deg, 08.30AM, already the Northerlies are going to play a big part Sat and Sun

The Watto wrote:Melbourne Airport @ 22deg, 08.30AM, already the Northerlies are going to play a big part Sat and Sun

Temperatures will be quick to get going for the next day or so as well since we have a fresh northerly jet over us.

Wonderful clear skies here, temp sitting on 23 degrees.

Latest GFS has a Southerly burst in a week's time to cool things down briefly, but I'm scared about the 850T temps forecast to hit over 30degC above Western Australia around the same time. If that heat makes it to Vic in late November via a Northwesterly, run for cover... (Feb 7 had 850T in the vicinity of 31DegC)

I was in Echuca last weekend, and everything was drying up very quickly. It really surprised me.

Temps have climbed to 26c in the city, 27c here. Winds are moderately blowing which is obviously helping with bringing the heat down. The southern Mornington Peninsula is cool, with Frankston only on 19c.

norfolk wrote:Temps have climbed to 26c in the city, 27c here. Winds are moderately blowing which is obviously helping with bringing the heat down. The southern Mornington Peninsula is cool, with Frankston only on 19c.

It's about 27 here, blue skies and warm. Yeah, I think Frankston were only 35c when the rest of Melbourne was 46c back in February. Good to live close to the water.

Some convection bubbling up behind the dandenongs from my angle.

Some puffy clouds developing here and there......all in the distance though. But the air is too dry for anything to develop, right?

A lovely 25.5 degrees here, but of a notherly but nice and mild. Took the cover off the spa in preparation today, added chlorine and then covered it up as it is way too cold to use it . Look out to what tomorrow brings as I can handle a heatwave like this.

You know the state is hot when Warrnambool is hitting 30c

Haha yeah Tony. Warrnambool hit 30 degrees today. We are currently sitting at 33 degrees, very toasty outside, but this is a good heat, I like it personally, but obviously for the good reasons. My DP is at 18 here, and it feels quite muggy out there as well. We also have some small to medium Cu building out there. Latest SAT is showing the small convection nicely. http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

I am not expecting any activity Tony today, however the risk IMO for something to pop up would be less than 5% today.

Early next week looks active.

Apart from Isolated storms perhaps on the ranges over the course of the next week I see very little to no weather for us for the forseeable future Jake

And I tend to agree with John. Not sure what any of the models say, am still quite a novice at all that part of it, but it just seems too dry this week in my eyes.

Despite the fact I like the heat, I wish Tuesday tends to cool down a bit as I have a funeral to attend and it isn't pleasant when people are mourning and there is heat about.

Hey John.

Looks like we are having one of those dissagreement moments! I am still sticking to what I said the other day, isolated afternoon thunderstorms mostly in the west and on the ranges.

Power Storm wrote:Hey John.

Looks like we are having one of those dissagreement moments! I am still sticking to what I said the other day, isolated afternoon thunderstorms mostly in the west and on the ranges.

For today jake, or later in the week?

Strangely enough, I hate the heat but today was actually more bearable then previous times where it has been above 29 degrees.

Get your free Slurpees at 7/11 people!

From about Monday or Tuesday onwards Tony. There are warm uppers though, so it will be quite isolated.