Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

interesting forecasts, Thursday and Friday a couple of degrees cooler than originally forecast, but with partly cloudy skies, light winds tending southerly or south-south westerly on each of the days, surely they wont be as warm......unless like today it wont be light winds but moderate norterlies at first.


Now back to Bejewelled on Facebook! hahaha

Yep first above 30c day today and should see another 4 or 5 of them over the next week with 4 in row today though to Tuesday then slight cool down then warms up again later in the week

Inland heating up to 34-36c there today funny to think that this will be there coolest temp in over a week up there scary stuff, could see up to 4-5 days above 40c in NW Vic, E Sa and W NSW that is shocking for early to mid November. few records I for for duration and length etc.
I Like the heat was but was hoping to to see it this hot for this long so early.

Also chance of rain for the State is very low to nothing for least around 7-10 days there be the odd isolated storm/shower about the rangers on Tuesday and Wednesday but that's about it, cant see any more wide spread than that due to the Warm upper levels and the massive Stable upper ridge that will just suppress anything away from the uplift of the mountains.

31c here today the start of a long warm dry week

Still very moist over the whole continent, expect it to start feeding in by Thursday onwards...wont rain but will at least see plenty of convection about, as can be seen by fri, sat and sun forecast of partly cloudy.

Expect it to be a big event in a couple of weeks if we can get our fair share of colder air in the right spot. Longer term we could still end up with a stormy summer as the moisture is defintely there, just a matter of the right systems developing to deliver us what we need.

**Note latest 12 month forecast shows above average rain for central for Jan/Feb, just seen it now*

Hey Anthony just wondering what exactly is showing above average rainfall for Jan and Feb? Got a link mate? Thats odd was only telling Karl today and last week and even a few months ago that I expect Jan and Feb to be wet this Summer unlike last Summer


I expect this warm to hot dry spell to come to abrupt end around the 18th to 20th November at least EC has been hinting at that last couple of runs & with all that moisture around and very warm ssts NW of Australia it should help us for some sort of decent rain event for then

Elders has Decile 10 for January for Western Victoria wow! I don't follow this as stone but it is a fairly good guide of whats to come Elders got the big dry and heatwave of March 2008 right saying from Early Feb that March be dry and has been close to the mark for other things as well. It had Decile 1 at one stage (I think was last month) for November rainfall so be interesting how close it gets next few months. Lets say this I have never seen it say a Decile 10 for anywhere in Victoria before.

BOM, now forecasting some storms for the western district, North central, North east, and Gippsland on Tuesday and Wednesday also forecasting storms for Mt Buller next Saturday. This is a change from yesterday when there was no mention of anything. No mention of storms for central district though

Yes Dane, quite a change on their forecasts, but they have been watching it for a little while now. The only problem with the thunderstorm development is that the uppers will be quite warm, but hopefully with the high moisture build-up, instability and trough in the region there will be isolated afternoon thunderstorms through the western regions and on the ranges, particularly northeast ranges.

Also, we should see another hot day tomorrow, we have a northerly jet over us which will cause the northerly winds to be predominant over the seabreeze again, well it should, and they will be fresh during the morning so temps will rise quickly.

Yes Johnno the elders site...im tipping because the Indian is now almost all above average and tipped to stay that way through the summer months.

From reading the posts here re Elders I gather a decile 10 is good for rainfall. Is that right?

Day 1 down..7 to go. Nah, wasn't that bad really, I think it's just been in the hot sun that makes it worse.

I do like the warm nights though, as long as I can sleep.

Ah, feel for the NW of Vic though. Any records possibly this week?

Ok guys, can someone explain.....

looking at EC, I see a low situated in NW Victoria on Wed 11th. Does that mean a trough up there with instability?
Not sure if the link will work but here it is.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009110700!!/

By Thursday it disappears but there looks to be a dip in the high over NSW which could be a remnant of it and giving Melb, easterly winds.

GFS seems to show something similar, what looks to be a low more over the Echuca area, pushing in SE winds to the melbourne area, with it all but turning quite weird by the Friday!


And is that a cold front I see moving in next Saturday?

Early forecast for Melbourne next Saturday is 36. Geez and 30s all week.

Looking at the latest progs this set up reminds me of late Dec/early Jan in 07/08. That situation persisted for nearly 2 weeks and ended with hardly any rain. We went from sodden to dry in two weeks - just dried the crap out of everything.

The current situation is about as bad as it can get for heat/lack of rain. The upper ridge is just to our west and through the entire sequence we have subsiding NE flow. The subsidence dries out the air countering the bringing down of moisture in the NE winds. Every day from Tuesday has the chance for showers but really isolated - being confinded to around the ranges and the coast (where the odd light shower/drizzle patch will develop in light on shore winds.

I fear this event is going to rewrite the record books - seems every summer sees at least one record heat wave now-a-days

As expected the northerly jet is making winds strong this morning getting those temperatures up pretty quickly. It is currently 26 degrees here and thats with a DP of 14. Mildura is sitting on 28 degrees now.

Weatherwise I still expect to see the chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the west and on the ranges from Monday. Temperatures should remain at 30 or above on most days next week, maybe a couple of cooler days for southern Victoria, but north of the ranges the heat will be unwelcoming. Despite all this, GFS in the latter part of its run is showing some quite very hot temperatures for the state possibly Friday or Saturday at this stage ahead of a milder change at last. EC shifts the change in a little later than GFS.

Is it possible that someone 'teaches' me hpw they work out temperatures by looking at the models? I tend to go with local knowledge (or whatever others say) but obviously one of the models can show temperatures.

Thanks, Tony

GFS seems to be all over some big activity in the next fortnight to the NW of australia, even forecasting a cyclone with the passage of the next MJO...this bodes well for us. SSTs are excellent for once off the NW coast at the right time, and the highs seem to be already quite a way South, making it easier for troughs to penetrate further South. So we may end up with little in the first half of November, but then the potential increases as i expect the country to be laden with tropical moisture and advected down South..

Typical summer's day where the western side of the Bay is a few degrees warmer than the eastern side.

Geelong, Laverton and Avalon are already into the low 30's, and so am I by the way.
In the north, Viewbank has just hit the 30 mark, with most other places quite close.

Obviously more will be over 30 soon.

Its over 30 degrees here too now. Up to 31.1 with a DP of 16.

Anthony Violi wrote:
**Note latest 12 month forecast shows above average rain for central for Jan/Feb, just seen it now*

From TheAge:

The last time Melbourne had four days above 30 in a row in the first half of November was in 1902. The drought broke a month later when heavy rain fell across the state.

But Melbourne in 2009 is unlikely to get similar relief.

No rain is predicted this week and the Bureau of Meteorology says it is likely Melbourne will receive less rainfall than average this summer.

Hard to know what to believe, but it's certainly not nice having so many 30s all week this early in November. I'm hopeful for summer storms and some rain though.

Yeah this event is looking more and more a record breaker many places could see up to 10 days in a row above 32c mostly in the north and up to 5 days in a row above 40c
Here in Melbourne I reckon we will see 5 out of the next 7 days above 30c not including yesterday and today so makes it 7 out of 9 nine which is big for Melbourne.

Might have to extend the dates till Nov 15th looks like this heat is here for the long haul sadly, and dose not look to peak till next weekend scary stuff.

31c here and hoping for some rain later this month.
Could be a record Hot dry month but that is VERY early days

Might also mention here as well as in the fire thread that there are two fires burning in the far east of the state at the moment. DSE is in attendence to both. A large blaze is southeast of Orbost (not threatening properties) with 6 trucks there whilst an even larger blaze 2KM west of Mallacoota (not threathening properties), with 62 trucks attending.

just looking at our warmest november ever, November 1862, we saw 7 days above 30 in that month.
But nothing more than 2 days in row.

Nov 7 : 34.2
Nov 8: 31.2

Nov 13: 31.5
Nov 14: 35.7

Nov 17: 36.3
Nov 19: 32.8

Nov 26: 30.9

rainfall was very low at 10.8mm

the rest of that summer saw.....Dec 1862: 11.4-24.8 29.5mm
Jan 1863: 14.1-26.7 46.8mm
Feb 1863: 14.5-24.2 69.8mm

Power Storm wrote:Might also mention here as well as in the fire thread that there are two fires burning in the far east of the state at the moment. DSE is in attendence to both. A large blaze is southeast of Orbost (not threatening properties) with 6 trucks there whilst an even larger blaze 2KM west of Mallacoota (not threathening properties), with 62 trucks attending.

Ah not good. I have property near there. Also it's a nice area so a waste. Geez no end in sight atm, this is not a very good sign for summer. All that rain seems a distant memory..

what rain, we got bugger all and this week will just dry everything out. There is plenty of fuel so later in the months to come things could be a big worry.

Hope it doesn't get affected there Floyd.

Temp here just reached 34 degrees but DP is continuing to rise currently at 19 degrees. Feels very muggy out there!