Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

I'd have to disagree, I think we will get a fair bit tonight and it will increase into the morning. I don't think there will be absolutely tons tonight but I am very confident about tomorrow.

Very little so far in the line coming through Avalon, just some heavy drizzle so far.

Convection really getting going now, sky is darkening up very nicely. All low based scuddy stuff as is usual with these sort of systems. Hopefully the action can begin shortly.

It will. The atmosphere is ready to explode. It has been on edge all day, very good conditions for it.

Looks very promising.

I thought BOM would have had chance of thunderstorms?

All firing up just as expected. With such high dew points the showers will tend to be heavier than the radar is suggesting. Should see totals build quickly once your under them.

Still expecting 50mm for Ferny Creek.

looking mighty fine for some action...notice the stark contrast between the 3.30pm visual sat and the 4.30pm...almost as if someone flicked a switch so instead of just a whitewash there is now good mid level convection exploding statewide. Also some mega thunderstorms to the North of Adelaide in response to the upper trough...hopefully more of the same for us overnight and tomorrow morning as the trough closes in. Looks likely to see a good inch statewide, hopefully more but an inch would be a very handy start.

If that band between Donald and Stawell turns thundery or decent rain then we will all get a good bollocking!!

Good day for gardening, gutters are clean, drains are cleared!!

DC449 wrote:I thought BOM would have had chance of thunderstorms?

They do, but not in the official forecast, they mentioned it in the Fire Forecast this morning.

There will be scattered thunderstorms now, and we are already seeing some isolated areas of heavier rain, we have enough heat for it.

Temperatures have got high enough today for some pretty decent convection. GFS had -2 LIs this morning for around about now but could even be a touch higher atm. More interested in the start of the rain areas coming down from the near NW which looks pretty good and has developed rapidly. I suspect the showers ahead of it might be a bit hit and miss, very patchy atm and more likely to have an impact on the coastal areas and in particular the SE suburbs of Melbourne into South Gippsland.

Coming down here, and it sounds sweet!

coming down here

Up to 3mm already, at times almost torrential. I love it!!

Looks as though the first little band has pretty much missed us here. Looking better for the second up near Kilmore, hopefully it organises itself. Nevertheless, this is a nice little entree.

Finally a nice steady fall has begun, the sky looks so dark and heavy, very tropical looking, just before the afternoon monsoon rolls in, low, thick and hazy. I just wish the rain rate matched the look of it though. It's getting heavier as I type but still, I'd love to see it hammer down.

Its seems to be taking forever for the rain to come... Inland SA looks crazy atm on satpic, especially around Lake Eyre.

Stratospear wrote:Its seems to be taking forever for the rain to come... Inland SA looks crazy atm on satpic, especially around Lake Eyre.

That's good, means it will last for longer

Nice and steady vertical rain with the showers. A light sky, methinks these are low showers and the sun is shining above them.

Just a few light showers here, 0.2mm's so far. Rob Gell on 7 weather news tips 10 to 15mm's for Melbourne.

Not sure on the 50mm DJ but I hope your right.

Looking like a nice soaking rain event for many areas, but up to 20mm looks OK across Melbourne.

Dane wrote:Just a few light showers here, 0.2mm's so far. Rob Gell on 7 weather news tips 10 to 15mm's for Melbourne.

Luckily he is way off the mark. Melbourne already has 1.6mm, if it gets any less than 20mm I will be very disappointed! I am expecting 20+ mm from after midnight to tomorrow midday.

Every shower is getting heavier, it's really on and off but the intensity of them is getting better every time. The last one really got my attention, it was short but quite heavy. Back to drizzle, that new line coming in from the NW could end up being a cracker, they seem to be intensifying as they close in on Melbourne for a change, now it's heavy again. I didn't think this was really going to happen, I'm so happy it is.

BUCKETING FINALLY, sorry didn't mean to yell, I can't hear myself think. WOO HOO

It's been coming down here pretty hard off and on for the last 30 mins, I think there will be some flooding in places tonight.

Once the sun goes down and goes dark, all these heavy low based showers look likely to go. I think we will have to wait til after 3am for something decent, or more decent than present.

Think the models have overcooked this one.

3mm here.