Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

GFS upgraded again, looks as though there is a big chunk of LI -6 and cape 2200 all around central vic with Melb Li -5 at 2pm Thursday!!!

Significant shear of around 35 at 8pm as well, I think we may get the big cells around night fall.

Very excited now!

Models actually have around 5-10mm of rain by tomorrow morning. If this comes off expect extremely high humidity during the day. Hopefully we can get some clear skies after that into the afternoon because storms will absolutely go off in western and central districts, but certainly in the NW the storms will be exploding and it will all come down over the top of us later in the day into the evening. With the moisture profile and upper trough as intense as it is there will almost certainly be some very notable spikes of high rainfall in amongst it.

Almost constant lightning from west right around to the ENE now. Most of it is behind a rain curtain so looks like no lightning shot unless more develop infront of it.

Check out the BOM 4 day forecast chart!

Great visual, that low looks to be settling in nicely from tomorrow night until Sunday morning.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml

How's the harvest going around your way Malleefarmer? if big dumpings occur in the next couple of days will most of the wheat be off already? I have heard that the northern mallee is well underway and the wimmera not yet fully started - so the great crops could all be buggered if flooding happens which is on the cards.

We're about to get hit by a nice little cell by the look of the radar.

Wheat only just getting going now but most of the big boys are still on barley so there could be a lot of damaged grain around if things go as forecast. Rainy smell coming though the aircon now so can't be far off

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in the
Mallee,
Wimmera and parts of the
Northern Country Forecast Districts.


Issued at 10:25 pm Wednesday, 25 November 2009.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Swan Hill, Walpeup, Horsham, Warracknabeal, Echuca and Kerang

Up to 10mm @ Hopetun in the last hour or so. Some of this activity will increase and be near the central ranges by 6am and increase throughout by 12pm. Could be falls near 75mm today.

Lightning is the most active it has been all night, Peak of 26 a min from what I've seen and averaging pretty high.

And now you can see what i mean when there is an upper trough....storms firing all night, massive area of thundery rain out to the west. Its going to be a cracker of a day with high humidity, anywhere with clear air will see the biggest thunderstorms in years today.

Judging by the speed of those storms coming in from over the border, they are travelling at around 50km/h. So if they can sustain there momentum, they should hit Melb round 4.30-5.00am. That's if they don't die out.

I'm withstanding temptation to go for a quick drive out to the ballarat fwy, and will stay put. Just not active enough, might as well see if it will come to me for once. Should it hold, i'll be down at Williamstown trying to get some across the water shots.

Fingers crossed Greg...across the water shots always look great.

I can barely believe what I'm seeing from work this morning....area of storms has developed a semi squall line, wind howling in from the NW with low level scud screaming across the sky just like a SW change...and lightning to the NNW...

I've woken up to a wet ground and the radar looks very good. Going to be a wet morning

wipers will be on all the way to st arnaud for me id suspect. Looking forward to an exciting day. My lawn is already coming back from the dead!

Yeah, it's started already. Heavy shower atm although easing off now. It's only going to get heavier and more widespread as the day goes on.

Anyone know about a big storm in Sunbury? I head on the radio there was damage up that way?

Looks like a slight downgrade for CAPE and LI's for around the Melbourne metro area, but couldn't get much better than the previous runs anyway...

This morning rain will help us a lot in terms of humidity today. I really hope we can get some clear air later.

GFS upgraded rainfall totals closer to the city now with 75mm showing for the event in some isolated areas (however I expect bigger widespread totals than what is forecast)

Very promising to get this early morning isolated rain, and to see the updated BOM forecast as well:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Mostly cloudy. Showers tending to rain at times. Local thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Winds variable tending northerly and averaging up to 30 km/h. Squally winds, heavy rain and possible hail with thunderstorms.

That is about as blunt as BOM will ever get that there is severe weather around.

Clean-up underway after destructive storms

A clean-up is underway in Victoria's north-west after two storms hit the Swan Hill area.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says the damage in Swan Hill was mainly uprooted trees, but the small town of Woomelang was the hardest hit, with roofs ripped off some houses and trees being uprooted.

Powerlines have been brought down in the town with a population of about 500 and a television tower was blown down across the entrance of the local nursing home.

In the nearby town of Ultima, the radio tower at the fire station was knocked down and the football club lost its roof.

Local SES duty officer Stan Hendy says the storms caught the area off guard.

"The bureau's forecast some thunderstorms but we weren't expecting them perhaps until tomorrow, but obviously some have formed up there this evening," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753749.htm

Just woke to constant thunder and light ing! Should be an interesting drive to work...

Thunder here.
Today could really turn nasty, particularly west of CBD.

just in from Rikki, beautiful roll cloud on it's way from Bendigo heading for Melb, will have a quick cuppa, then will head towards the AP as it gets closer.

just saw a big CG, the thunder has been rolling along here for 20mins now and it's getting closer

Good morning everyone!

Instead of the usual occurrence of being woken up by our 9 week old son, we have been awoken by thunderous rumbles! Of course, our little boy is sleeping right through it hehehe. Moderate rain at the moment.

Just checked the gauge .... 11mm overnight, so a fantastic start to this event