Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:58 pm

Another system - another topic.

The weekend is shaping up as a rather rainy one in the southeast with a fully occluded low slowly passing NW to SE across the southeast corner. This system then deepens rapidly near Tasmania allowing the establishment of cold unstable SW flow for early next week with a sequence of front. The final front in the sequence has some very cool air - 850Ts down to near -2C so quite low level snow around Tuesday/Wednesday.

Initially the focus of the system should be through western areas and on the northern slopes but then shifting southeast.

(Just editted the title for easier access later down the track Smile)

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:53 pm

Yeah nice concise forecast.

I think there could be some thunderstorms about Saturday night which may add some reasonable totals out west to what they have had the past few days.

Some exciting prospects though from Saturday night through C and E VIC with that low pressure complex drifting through. I think falls of 5-20mm across the southern and mountain half looks OK at this point and then 10-40mm in showery bursts behind over the south.

Also hints of this narrow ridge following being dissolved by another active LWT at the end of most model runs (168hrs+).
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:30 pm

Well we are already talking about another system that has some very good prospect. A fantastic change in weather patterns I must say, and Melbourne will get their rainfall, I'm not sure when but its bound to start soon. Wink

The weekend shows some potential imo for thunderstorms too. A lot of cold air to play with and divergence. Rain areas as well embedded into the mix, so its shaping up to be a good weekend.

I will talk more about this tomorrow, since I have to head of to bed now, I have a quadratics test in maths tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:15 am

I get the sense that the rainfall is going to track again through western and northern VIC initially now and Melbourne may wait until Sunday to get some rain.

Really unlucky to be in C VIC.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:25 pm

Not much change to the overall scenario for the weekend. Rain spreading across the north and west on Saturday, but the south again in a rain shadow. South then gets some action as it goes west to south-west on Sunday/Monday. Should be another productive system - though am worried about central Vic missing out again...

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:17 pm

The C parts of VIC will miss out away from the coast. The flow is too WNW/WSW for anything to get organised so I am expecting falls of up to 5mm from the entire event through the region.

Looking fantastic along the divide and the W Coast at this time. Should see another 25-50mm through those regions.

Then it looks like Gippsland should get some better falls later in the week as an upper disturbance surfaces off the east coast and we return into SE winds.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Jun 04, 2009 7:06 pm

Central ranges look to do really well out of this system it is just east central and Melbourne area that misses out initially thanks to rain shadow effects in NW flow but then picks up once the flow goes W/SW and it dries up here. Just a little confused, Karl and DJ when you say central VIC may miss out is that due to rain areas not spreading east and south out of the western and northern districts? Or the ranges putting a block on rainfall reaching coastal, east central and Melbourne areas thanks to the rain shadow effect. GFS is giving us around 30-40mm here locally for the long weekend and I would consider myself to be well and truly central VIC.

Just wondering is there something there in the models that I am not seeing that would lead to us missing out locally? What would be your estimates for west central ranges from this one?

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:14 pm

I will refine that statement and say Melbourne Metropolitan can expect up to 5mm this week. I cannot see a great deal in the WNW/WSW flow. The last few events have been like this and EC days out had falls of 25-50mm for the Melbourne region and we got 2mm. Not a fan of these events at all and I fear the worst at this time.

The rain band is associated with a weak disturbance and parent low that should move through a region of the state that is not favorable for this region down here.

If the winds shift more SSW then it would be great for us, but over the years it seems like we have been asking too much for that.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Jun 04, 2009 10:38 pm

I think we will miss out here or get little once again due to a complex situation and the rainshadow as well. The complex situation being the main low west of us weakening or dissolving and keeping the main rainband Over the West & North of the state moving ENE and weakening meanwhile the remanents of the low near Tasmania will intensify to our SE but it will be to far SE for Central Victoria to get any decent rainfall out of it so Central Vic may get caught in the middle again of almost getting nothing or very little thats how I see things at the moment infact have for a few days now. I will look at things once again tomorrow as UKMet and co start looking into this system.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 05, 2009 4:35 am

Haven't checked the other models nor I really going to after all their last performances expect for UKMet which did very well in predicting small falls for South Central and once again right it was anyway this time it at least has 5-8mm Saturday for South Central & Melbourne and it looks like the Northerlies shouldn't be an issue given the complexity of the system with lows around us should mean winds will lighten off for a while and even become variable perhaps so rainshadow shouldn't be much of an issue so be interesting to see how this pans out if UKMet is on the ball again.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jun 05, 2009 5:18 am

Looks OK to me for (maybe) 2-10mm across central Vic initially. Its a pretty weak (and weakening) system but the upper low comes right over the top of us, and the system has fairly healthy low level moisture. The initial system looks best for the west, and also possibly for Gippsland as the Bass Strait low build back.

For the south - probably more interest lies in the establishment of the SW flow on Monday with a couple of front pushing through. The air is cold - 850Ts in EC down to ~-2.5C on Tuesday night - and the low level humidity high so should be very shower. Main issue for Melbourne is how SW'ly it goes. EC has the 850 winds SW for 72 hours which would be very damp. GASP and UK has it more WSW which would focus showers more through Gippsland/Otways.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:53 pm

Looks like UKMet is holding on to 4-8mm or so across Melbourne with the band tomorrow the surface low may weaken but the Upper low stays intact and moves just north of us later tomorrow then slides slowly SE just east of us Sunday morning should at least give us patchy rain areas I would think. Just saw Laps and its out of whack as is GFS to some extent both models handled the Upper trough this week very poorly for South Central Victoria as did EC at certain stages too so I'm commited with UKMet which had very little for us days leading into this week. JMA also showing 5-8mm with the band for us down here.

I don't think the Northerly be much of a problem this time due to the fact it will only be moderate to begin with at best then gradually peter out later in the day as the surface pattern becomes weak and upper low moves over us so by tomorrow evening/night I would expect winds to become variable.

Be good to get any sort of rain DJ its beyond terrible out this way mate only 8ks from the CBD/city near Flemington racecourse and have had only 84mm for the year normally should be up too 260mm by now by far the worst start to any year around here. I've had less than 1/3 this year to what I should of had by now.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jun 05, 2009 2:58 pm

I'm not so sure about this weekend. I think very little tomorrow. The flow is too westerly beyond the feature on the weekend. The last time we had low level moisture and this westerly setup we had 2mm.

Not convinced.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 05, 2009 3:26 pm

I'm not even looking beyond the rain band karl as I know it will be a flop especially my way so I'm hopeing the band can at least produce 5mm this way which will be better than nothing beyond that I expect next to nothing in the WSW airstream.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Jun 05, 2009 4:31 pm

Isn't it so strange how the patterns have changed dramatically for much of western and to some extent Northern Victoria, but still, central parts of the state continue to miss out? It's odd! Why are the systems weakening just before Victoria?

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:23 am

Well there is some locally heavy rainfall over the southwest of the state currently, wouldn't be suprised to see some lightning around there later on too, and in the northwest where if there is some good clearence I would give thunderstorms are good chance to get going. Looks like most of the precipitation today will be restricted to the western and parts of the northern districts today which is what everybody originally thought anyway, if you can get under some heavier convective stuff you could score up to 5mm IMO, some of its slow moving.

Here at the moment things are dry, very cold start but warming up now in the light to moderrate NW winds. Some convection going on but not too much. I have pinned my hopes on the rain developing here mid-late afternoon, though we may just get some light stuff, or virga above us before then.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:21 am

Not very often you have such a complex series of low pressure systems in our region, and you get very little. Radar looks bizarre with rainbands moving into one another and convective showers across the west and north.

I don't think we will see too much in the daylight, perhaps one or two showers this afternoon and then with a bit of luck a few showers and thunderstorms overnight. Tomorrow looks like a dryish sort of day as the system resolves a new centre to the SE and we go into WSW winds. A shower or two through the Melbourne region.

Then perhaps the saving grace will be the fact that winds go more SSW in the outlook and this will fling showers onto the southern ranges and coastal plains. Could get 5-20mm through S Central region, barely making it to acceptable for the week when signs were for 50mm but alas better than nothing.

Loving the synoptic pattern a week from now, hopefully that feature doesn't weaken or head SE.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:39 am

Once these lows weaken out and we are back under a more standard westerly pattern with LWT the rain will follow as cold fronts are allowed through. This happens after Sunday. Very little for today and tomorrow, maybe a shower or two about the hills. Monday and Tuesday look wet with 10-20mm likely for many parts and isolated 20mm plus about the ranges and hills. Also our first real burst of cold air Tuesday with snow down to around 900m likely.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:03 pm

Weather has gone completely mad...summertime situation for the last 5 days with the typical NE infeed and low wrapping around the SE corner of OZ...bizzare.

And as Karl said today takes the cake, nice rainband through Bass Strait merging with another cloudband moving in from SA...and out of all that we dont see much at all. But it will come, back it in next week will be good.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Jun 06, 2009 1:46 pm

Things don't look too shabby right now. Middle level deck producing reasonable rainfall over the W and C ranges and actually thickening as it comes into Melbourne, fingers crossed.

Watch the storms and showers developing in clearer air between Swan Hill and the border of SA.

Karl (@ Anthony's)
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:45 am

A very complex system out there ATM. Satellite picture shows multiple centres to this low (some near the surface and some above) with 4 areas of enhanced weather ATM. There is the the small area of rain rotating through Melbourne and the ranges to the east, another area near Mt Gambier which has moved east to west while rotating north, the main low near Hobart moving west, and then an area of rain across Tasmania/Bass Strait.

Today looks like a very messy day weather wise. Focus looks likely to be the southwest coast, coastal Gippsland and the northern slopes of the ranges. LI suggest that we should see some decent convection PM with the change of the odd rubble. Cant see much in Melbourne proper, though some showers might get quite heavy.

First of the two "proper" fronts due around the middle of the day on Monday and the second about the same time on Tuesday. Getting progressively colder. This is the best timing for rain, so should be quite productive with both fronts.

Only 0.4mm to report over night in Sandy Point, though was very black and looked very stormy over the Prom yesterday (where ~22mm has fallen). Also good to see the snow starting in the alps.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:56 am

Nice to wake at 3am and here some rain for a change! Got up at 2 to attend to screaming baby and saw a nice area moving down from the NNW, had about 6mm roughly, will check once the rain stops.

Also this arvo could also be decent once we go into a SW sort of stream, particularly for us over this side of town...
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:19 am

And just on another note, DJ am i right in suggesting Tuesday Ec has ramped things up a bit again? Looks like good falls right through the state but especially the Eastern half..
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 07, 2009 10:20 am

1.4mm in the gauge which I guess had to be overnight when we had a bit of a shower. Messy looking sky outside, some convection happening over the mountain (to the NW of here) which looks quite low and menacing but doesn't indicate anything majorly exciting to me IMO. Hoping for a few heavy showers or storms to pop up today, only way I can see rain falling until tomorrows front.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Dane on Sun Jun 07, 2009 3:13 pm

Still managing to dodge the drops here in Cranny, zero mm's in the 72 hours to 9am and not a drop today so far. Hope to get a few mm's at least in the next few days. Still sitting on the just 5.6mm's for the month.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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