Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

yes they will Snipe. John may be pleasantly surprised by AM. Rain is getting quite heavy here now. Can hear the tanks filling.

Oh yeah rain!!!! Sounds great!!

Finishef with about 16mm to 6am. Some very small but heavy slow showers all night.

Maybe another 5mm about this morning.

Heaviest falls out over the hills.

Now have to wait to see how the weekend pans out. Fingers crossed for more rain!!

So far on 14mm, which comprised of two 7mm bands, the first from 2.00 PM to 6 PM, the second heavier, at around 12.00-2.00 AM. Both GFC & EC forcasted 10mm for the area.

~10.5mm here this morning.. very welcome after all that wind had dried everything out.

Wettest day in Melbourne since April 4 (when 18mm fell) - could even better that if the heavy showers continue???

Looks like 20-25mm at home in Ferny Creek, but won't know til Sunday. BTW obs suggest snow to about 800m this morning - perhaps even the odd flake about the very tops of the Dandenongs. Great to have some winter weather!

In the Tassie rain shadow in Sandy Point (good actually as I've got work to do) with just 0.4mm overnight.

Looking at the latest US it holds promise still for the next week for southern and mountain VIC.

I'm interested in the difference in observations in this event. Really came down to luck with showers and the burst of heavy rain yesterday.

GFS looks rather too good next week IMHO. EC has 10-25mm across much of southern Vic in a moist unstable NW/SW flow, compared to GFS's 25-75mm. GASP is more like EC and UK more like GFS. The main difference is in the period Monday -> Thursday. Will have more confidence in a day or two.

Sunday's front looks OK for a handy follow up with a sharp upper trough. Would guess 5-15mm at this stage. Shame that the front on Saturday will just clip Vic as it has the potential to be very wet.

Perhaps worth starting a new thread for Saturday onwards?

PS watch for a cold night tonight. 850Ts of -2 to -3 and a high ridging in quickly.

Yes I think that would be wise to start a new thread. A break friday gives us time.

Intersting at the surface the front looks stale on EC but US showing the kink in the isobars for Sunday. Perhaps a little thundery as Jake suggested yesterday??

Good rain in the catchments and CBD presently.

Woke up to a brief shower this morning. There's another one or two heading my way but knowing about how my area is always behind a rainshield, we probably won't get those extra drops.

Showers becoming more isolated now and it should be a pretty good afternoon now with one or two showers towards the Bellarine Peninsula.

hillybilly wrote:After going off the boil, models are now keen on the system for tomorrow. Both EC and GFS put pretty widespread 10-20mm across the state for the 36 hours. Main areas which have the potential to miss out are central Vic (particularly west of Melbourne... Johnno) and far northwest.

Positive things are a decent period of rain/showers developing in the NW flow tomorrow, then turning cyclonic SW'ly with the cold pool of about 534 running through central Vic on Wed night/Thur morning.

Is going to feel cold and wet after the last few days.

Glad you got this one wrong DJ had a feeling it might provide even for us here in the Great Western desert.. 2 reasons as I was telling Karl the other day through SMS alot of the models had us in SSW flow for a period of 12 hours at least thats enough for us to get something at least half decent this way also the fact Ssts are 2-3c above average all the way from the South coast of Tassie through the West coast of Tassie through King Island and onto the Central Vic coast that would help abit too for this time of year.

14mm all up here best fall in ages. Well done to EC and GFS only models really to pick this one the Mesolaps really didn't want a bar of it.

Cant really complain. 9mm so far out of this

A very cold night on the way with severe frosts inland and about the outer east. The area between Berwick and Cardinia Res. did really well out of the system copping 25-30mm there.

Otherwise models scaling back a bit (US) for the next sequence but not hopeless. Far northern areas may have to wait about 10 days for they're next rainfall.

Just tipped out 16mm for the system so far.

Saw some nice beefy clouds rolling past Leongatha today. The hills round there where a perfect green.

Johnno said... "14mm all up here best fall in ages. Well done to EC and GFS only models really to pick this one the Mesolaps really didn't want a bar of it."

Wrapped to see you did so well. We were lucky all around with the system. The upper divergence was weakening as the jet moved away and the ridge was moving in quickly, but the cold pool came almost right over the top of Melbourne with really good cyclonic curvature. These are the systems which central Vic does well in... and sadly in this year of endless NW'lies the systems which have almost gone missing.

Bit of a wind back for next week (though I wasn't really buying GFS) - something for the next thread.

PS trace down here in Sandy today (tassie works a treat in southerly flow down here - brilliant sunshine with only the odd Cu).

5.7mm here all up which was around 1.5mm more than the Melbourne Water Mount Macedon rainfall station (as shown on BOM flood warning map) and 2mm less than New Gisborne which is 7km away. The showers weakened right out before they could reach here by the looks of things but we still picked up a few decent ones. On and north of the ranges the rainfall really dropped off.

3C here currently, clear skies but quite damp atmosphere should ensure a slow temp drop from here on, could mean a rather thick frost though tomorrow morning.

Yep gunna be the coldest night so far.

Glad to see John and other guys in the W burbs have a good drop for once, it's better than nothing. Hopefully it keeps happening. .

To 9am this morning we had 17.8mm of rainfall thanks to persistent rain yesterday and last night.

Karl Lijnders wrote:Intersting at the surface the front looks stale on EC but US showing the kink in the isobars for Sunday. Perhaps a little thundery as Jake suggested yesterday??

I still think things could get a little interesting in the west during Sunday, with some instability about and US still IMO showing that 'kink' in the isobars, which could be a trigger to get some isolated thunderstorms going, but particularly for the southwest where it seems like things could be the most unstable. Worth a watch.

8mm out of that burst with a tiny bit of sleet last night around 7pm (which you only would have noticed if like me you were opening and closing gates at the time and your lights were on high beam)....

Currently -0.8C at my place, -1.3C at Clyve's. Gonna be a cold night if the breeze doesn't get up.....

Well atm too much breeze here for a frost but of it drops we will get one but don't think it will be severe. NO ice outside yet and usually if we are going to get a big one we would have a froizen garden hose by now but it is not so fingers crossed. ended up with 2mm for that so was happy with that considering I thought we would get nothing out of it. Dunno about the weekend but will only get a mm or so out of it I think. Hope dry spots can get it if we can't.

Jane have you had an serious snow this year? In the Dandenongs we've only had a few flakes so far - though August to early October is the peak for us.

Further 0.4mm last night in Sandy Point so event total at "about" 4mm. Looks very very wet down here next week - but I'll be back at work!

Stange, five drops fell.

White as snow again this morning. Ended with 15mm this system.