Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

First high cloud just coming over now. Hope by tonight, we are getting wet.

I love patches of AcCas and floccus in the morning that just hang about....like this morning - it's a real spring sky out there!

This is how I see it..


Mallee: 7-12mm
Wimmera: 10-25mm
SW: 5-20mm
Northern Country: 10-25mm
North Central: 20-35mm
South Central: 15-30mm
West Gippsland: 10-20mm
East Gippsland: 5-10mm
NE: 10-25mm
NE ranges: 20-50mm

Looks like some showers coming through the SA riverland well ahead of the main rainband. Might be a sign of some convective activity this arvo. Looking like there is more storms firing up in SA in that gap I was talking about too so hope that continues

Cj's developing west of Melbourne as we speak - looking conditionally unstable all morning...looking better and better - 18.6°C out ther now...

Very yummy looking satpics at present, plenty of moisture and heading in the right direction for once. If a 20+ mm event comes off in the northwest, crop yields will go from "meh" to "Yeah!" Looking nice so far.

Jane I agree,

The sky is classic afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Fingers crossed that this activity can increase gradually through the afternoon and release at the opportune time.

May see some heavier falls away from the ranges if thunderstorms become more widespread.

This afternoon is holding promise.

Bloke from the bom was very vague about this system on the radio just before. Doesn't help with the ditsy cow that runs the show more concerned about wind and needing a break constantly going on about it. Wish she would retire and give us all a break!!! Sounds like a lot of frontal action for the week and all he said about this system was that NE would do best rainfall wise

Well Peter was vague this morning also. I think you will find that the best falls being 50mm+ in the NE is best. But 20mm around the place is nothing to sneeze at.

I think you will get 10-20mm mate.

I am not going to get too excited but hoping for at least 10mm out of it. Looking good for that. Storms starting to track more SE than this morning so hoping we can see some more develop up.

Looking like a pretty decent event. Going for my 25mm but might just stick with 15mm for now.

Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa,
Ovens and King Catchments)
Issued at 12:38 PM on Friday the 28th of August 2009
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

Over the last 10 days the North East catchments have received accumulative
rainfall totals up to 74 mm. As a result of the rainfall and in conjuction with
snow melt minor flooding has occurred in the Kiewa and upper Mitta Mitta rivers
from late Friday 21 August. Minor flooding in the kiewa river extended to
Thursday 27 August.

A low pressure system developing over South Australia will approach northwest
Victoria later. The low will move southeastwards across the State on Saturday
ahead of a cold front which will sweep in from the west. Rainfall totals of up
to 60mm have been forecast for the North East from Friday evening to Sunday
morning. The North East catchments are wet as a result of the past weeks
rainfall and in conjuction with the forecast rainfall and possible snow melt
significant stream rises are likely to occur from Saturday.

Nice call by John on the Flood Watch!!

Looking forward to the weekend at Lake Eildon

Was looking South out the window in Camberwell approx 5-10 minutes ago and spotted one cloud formation that looked conducive for t'storms to the SE - probably just past Burwood heading down to Glen Waverley area. Quite a lot of cloud cover around here and a bit of wind. Nothing too special yet but wouldn't be surprised to see some t'storm activity in a few hours.

I'm up for a chase tonight / tomorrow. Probably be taking a mate from Footscray, whom i'm introducing to world of weather photography. If anyone wants to tag along just pm me, there is some room in the car, or we could converge somewhere;)

I generally bring along a camper cooker, snags, onions, bread and some tea /coffee making provisions in case i'm too tired to drive back home and need breakfast when i wake up in the morning. I usually bring a couple pillows cause lets face it, sleeping in the car can be hard at times. It all depends of course whether there's anything worth chasing tonight, but will assess as it unfolds. Chasing tomorrow could also spill into tomorrow evening.

And just to top it all off, snow down to 900 metres means Mt.Macedon is in the mix on Sunday.

Spotted some definite convection outside. Cloud getting sucked from a south to north direction into a bigger cloud mass. There may be some good storms this arvo.

Sounds awesome Greg!!! I think we need to make days of this during favourable conditions. I would tag along with you tonight but I'm working tomorrow!!!

Locally things may get going soon... Need extra warmth

Hi KL,

I was going to say that it is begining to look similar to the initial set up to a series of storms in the 2003 summer. Although, nowhere near the heat obviously...

I remember those storms had very large hail

Well greg going by latest Laps snow down to 900 metres for a period is a chance Late sat night or early Sunday morning.

Both latest Laps and GFS have ramped things up interms of rainfall especially for Southern Victoria & especially behind the change looking more showery now with colder air coming in Sat night into Sunday morning both models have 25mm+ for a large portion of Southern & Mountain areas of Victoria. Be interesting to see what UKMet and MLaps show soon but looking quite good sat pic looks good too.

Edit: Mlaps falls inline with Laps and GFS

yer no worries Karl. Thought it a good idea to be more involved with other Vic chasers this upcoming storm season, and perhaps document my peers at work in doing what they do best;)

looking at the sounding for tomorrow avo in the north central areas, Li's are getting in to the -2 territory, cape around 500 or so jet stream is screaming across the uppers..... been a while between drinks.

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-37.7&lon=144.68&date=2009082906&gribdate=2009082800

It has been far too long!!! Looking at the sounding Greg posted.. It looks like it could be a pretty showery and stormy late afternoon and evening tomorrow as a deeper colder SW flow develops.

Certainly looking much wetter across the south with this sequence.

Hi all just been getting the odd virga-ish drop up here but cloud thickening up and looking like showers around now. Waiting for the radar to come back to see where we are. Also just looked at a visible sat pic and there is a large accas field moving down from the NW into the system again so thies first rainband may well be followed up by another thundery rainband. later on. Either that or the change will catch the extra plume of moisture and provide a boost to the change.

Hey all
Hope this system really gets going for Melbourne as well as country VIC.
I didnt know that there was low level snow forecast, i am gonna have the lapdog up at mount Macedon on the weekend so maybe i can post if there is any snow. Any guestimates of a time for the cold air arrival up there?

Greg let me know if your thinking of passing through Bendigo at all tomorrow.

Also what time you think things going to fire tonight/tomorrow? Looking at houses tomorrow, but would much rather chase... haha

Just started to rain here, nice watching the cloud buildup from the NW will be interesting to see what this system delivers for us up here.

Wdit, just read snow dow to 900m, will have to take a trip up the mountain tomorrow if that is the case..

It will be up to the weather gods Rikki on this one, suffice to say according to the models the most likely would be around the 2pm -4pm for things to be favorable tomorrow. My hope is that i will be doing some mountain lookouts at some stage. Def keep your phone handy mate, if they are to be believed you are in hot seat. Although i always seem to have this idea that Seymour gets most of the action