Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Sat Sep 05, 2009 6:02 am

Looks like the low currently south of Perth will approach the southeast on Sunday and then likely restrengthen as a low in Bass Strait or the south Tasman Sea Mon/Tue/Wed. Looks like patchy rain and showers widespread ahead of the low Sun/Mon then some decent showers in south/southwest air flow as the low slowly clears out.

There is the potential for some heavy falls on the backend of the low in south/central areas - certainly EC has 20-40mm locally which would be a nice top up for catchments. If this comes off it will be (about) the first proper southwesterly event for months. The falls are really dependent on where the new low develops and how convergent the southerlies/southwesterlies are.

I can't see big total from this event for most - but 5-15mm (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp) looks a good chance a reasonable chance.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 05, 2009 1:59 pm

Latest models don't look to bad Laps has 10-20mm for us to Tuesday morning, JMA 10-15mm to Tuesday morning & GFS has 25mm for us til mid week though I find this bit hard to believe but unlike the past few fizzahs the one thing that is in our advantage this time down here is the onshore airstream which should build up some totals hopefully its SSW so ALL of Melbourne gets a good drop and not just the usual places which has been the situation all year.

If I get 5mm I'll be OK with that if I get 10mm out of this I'll be happy anything over and I will be rapt

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Power Storm on Sat Sep 05, 2009 3:02 pm

Well it is looking very interesting IMO for thunderstorms. Could be some good storms about, but will look closer at the model prognosis tonight, as I have to milk shortly... Should see patchy rain develop in the west tomorrow from midday abouts, with isolated thunderstorms as well.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:11 pm

Interesting system coming up with a good chance of some solid falls in the right places again.

Today looks like a general increase in cloud with areas of rain in the west spreading to central areas later. Some storms likely on the back edge of that rain in the west later in the day.

Monday we should see that disturbance deepen a little and move through southern VIC so a cloudy day with showers developing and becoming more widespread with the chance of thunderstorms. This should tend to rain over central areas later with the potential for some OK falls of 5-10mm.

Tuesday that focus eases somewhat from the west but still rather productive showery weather over east central and Gippsland for the remainder of the day.

Wednesday the situation eases a little more and we warming towards the end of the week.

Potential a ~20mm system for some parts of E Melbourne and catchments.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:05 am

The latest model updates are even more positive - next 36 hours will see plenty of showers/patchy rain and even storms (these look like starting in the west during the arvo with a window of about 24 hours when the LI are near 0 or negative so continuing well into Monday). The low then deepens in eastern Bass Strait late tomorrow establishing a strong, humid and cyclonic southwest flow across Vic. These set up are usually very productive in the south - so should see plenty of 20mm+ falls and GFS and EC both suggest we could see falls getting nearer 50mm in parts of the east central areas (Yarra Ranges) Very Happy

Doesn't look like much to me in Melbourne today until late - though instability does creep in during the afternoon so wouldn't totally rule out some solid convection and rumbles. Main ingredient missing initially will be moisture with DPs in the low single digits until late well into the arvo.

We do need this system before the start of warmer weather late this week.

At a guess will pencil in 30-40mm for Ferny Creek before this ends Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  SC on Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:38 pm

Sky looking very interesting atm. Mammas here aswell.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:52 pm

Well the latest LAPS and MLAPS don't look all that crash hot however not too concerned as I think they will come on board in the morning.

Lots of mammatus around with some light NW winds. Cannot see a lot of rainfall until overnight with the chance of thunderstorms possible.

Tomorrow looks better with showers developing, tending to rain later with some thunderstorms possible.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:08 pm

Just started raining in Trentham

btw, Trentham Falls looks like this atm


the sky looking southeast looked like this with the air piling up against the range.... taken about 11.30am
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:27 pm

Encouraging amount of water there Jane!! Great to see Smile

Some light spits here currently but very unstable in the middle layers now so rain should developing and increase a little in the next 4-8hrs.

Tomorrow's forecast is a little odd, expect showers to increase with the chance of thunderstorms, tending to rain later as a SW winds develops.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Dez on Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:30 pm

Mm...alot of the rain developes but heads out to the sea.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  floydlove on Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:50 pm

Mmm it has been sticking south as of late. Hopefully we can snare a storm not too late tonight. Some rain would be nice too. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  firestorm on Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:00 pm

1.2mm of rain in the last hour or so currently steady rain and not a breath of wind. Went for a stroll out the back of Aireys today or water catchment is full and over flowing! Anyone need so water we have plenty ATM afro

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Dez on Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:04 pm

Huge mammatus ontop of us at the moment.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  firestorm on Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:17 pm

still rainning 2.2mm

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  DarkEye on Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:13 pm

Had a rain band go through my way earlier this arvo, hopefully you guys get something out of it but most of the rain seems to be hanging onto the sea.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  norfolk on Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:17 pm

so far I have only seen 2 drops of rain and that's it! Most of it at the moment seems to be to the west and south. Also some rain seems to be developing over the bay and hitting the peninsula

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:32 pm

Can't see anything in this for most.

Tomorrow should see more showers around but nothing significant in the western half of the state except maybe coastal.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  firestorm on Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:22 pm

5.2mm and the rain has now stopped not too bad for just a few hours! Smile . Should get more tommorrow as showers increase during the day. Now off to bed!

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  rikjpool on Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:03 pm

Wow, thats heaps more water than i saw last time i was there. Thanks for that Jane. Slightly off topic, but do you know if/where you could get to the base of these falls? nice place for a picnic and some decent waterfall shots... Smile
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:03 pm

Some rain at times this afternoon and quite heavy too for a period towards the evening, as well as some squally winds. Should see showers and a possible thunderstorm develop here overnight as the low moves closer.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:08 pm

rikjpool wrote:Wow, thats heaps more water than i saw last time i was there. Thanks for that Jane. Slightly off topic, but do you know if/where you could get to the base of these falls? nice place for a picnic and some decent waterfall shots... Smile

Hi Rikki,

you can get down to the bottom - there's a bit of a goat track down from the viewing area, or do what we did also, follow the management vehicle track down by foot to the bottom of the valley - nice spots for a picnic and photos and then trudge up towards the falls along the side of the creek....both ways are worth a try for pics (it gets very cold down there so take layers and your ski gear..)
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Mon Sep 07, 2009 5:33 am

1.4mm overnight... bit disappointing, but then again it was never going to be great for us.

Looks to me like a very wet spell th next 48 hours on and south of the divide (particularly east of about the Otways). The centre of the low is shifting to the south NSW coast/eastern Bass Strait as the western centre fills and a new low develops. Southwest winds should become established as the day goes on with showers increasing. Wouldn't be surprised to see these tends towards rain at times in the south by tomorrow with the EC (for example) having rain falling in each hour for about 36 through Melbourne.

Still think 20-40mm is a good bet for Ferny Creek.

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Re: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Scott Lawrance on Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:12 am

Back in the city but I don't think Yea had anything. Again a bit of a fizzer - nothing to really speak of in the city either. Does everyone think it may increase later?

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:54 am

Humidity is good, this suggests rain and storms sometime today.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:55 am

Is EC the only model showing this DJ?? Cos as far as I can see most other models are showing little or look disintrested. I'm on the therory now until I see it rains theres nothing to get excited about its all paper work until then once I see it I will believe it.. Might be a temporary thing but thats how I am feeling at the moment. At least the sky looks good and theres a certain smell about today of rain.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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