Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:15 am

6.8mm at home since Sunday night. Very happy with my totals so far for this system. I'm expecting it to reach about 8mm all up with this south/south-westerly flow.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Blackie on Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:41 am

morning all, unexpectedly heavy showers in Elwood this morning - 3mm since early AM.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:56 am

It looks nice and wet on paper but can't see it in reality. 5-10mm about the place with winds shifting more SW/W by the time the flow stabalises.

Good to see the central suburbs getting some. Be half they're rainfall that has fallen for the year Wink
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Re: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Scott Lawrance on Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:05 am

Bullseye! At last the farm is under some rain by the looks of the radar!

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:42 am

Showers on the radar out west are starting to creep further east towards the western suburbs. Looks like a wet afternoon coming up. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:05 am

Looks to me like instability is increasing across central areas with showery bands starting to form into solid streets - this is exactly the EC/GFS scenario so models seem to be well onto this. Dunns Hill has picked up 3.4mm since 9am and is still showering. Lots of places also in the 5-10mm range through the Yarra Ranges.

Should be a nice wet 24 hours across the south. Still reckon Ferny Creek will end up in the 20-40mm range (total now stands on ~8mm).

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:15 am

Hope your right DJ.

Winds have swung more W of S now so should see the bay come into play with shower bands becoming a lot heavier later. I think we are about 2-4hrs away from seeing it set in along the plains.

A bit frustrating that it has taking this long, now it has to finish off well!!
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Luken on Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:28 am

Looks great on radar! But just got back from Springvale and not much to see to the SW of us here. Nice and grey on Spingvale Rd looking towards the hills, but the flow seems to still be coming from the S even though looking at trees and flags etc, the wind seems to have a fair bit of west in it....strange?? Why would that be?
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:00 am

What worries me is the bay being at its coldest point of the year right now its a good 2c lower than Bass straight temp off the Vic coast so not sure if it will play a big part like it would normally. This had of been March wowee but its September so yeah we just take what we can at the moment. liking the band coming up from Northern Tasmania may not affect here but should get the catchments later or tonight.

Another 2mm here overnight taking me to abit over 6mm which is okay with me.

BTW send you a couple of sms's Saturday Karl and haven't heard back from you since hope everything is okay.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:36 am

3mm so far today. watching the lawns grow.
Still seeing Storm damage around Boronia from the 25th aug.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:53 am

What worries me is the bay being at its coldest point of the year right now its a good 2c lower than Bass straight temp off the Vic coast so not sure if it will play a big part like it would normally.

Johnno presume you have seen the page at http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html .

I suspect the hugging the land which we are seeing is at least partly due to the colder bay. You would usually expect the showers to be more active up through the heads that over the two Peninsula as is the case ATM. I'd anticipate that the showers will tend back towards the bay as the we head into evening and the land cools.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 12:54 pm

Thanks DJ yes I have

2.8mm with the showers here just North of the CBD now nice and heavy at one stage. Takes me to neally 9mm for this event here.


Last edited by Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 1:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  dagget on Tue Sep 08, 2009 1:04 pm

Quite unexpected bit of rain up here, 12mm so far today, though most fell overnight and now just 10 degrees...

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Sniper on Tue Sep 08, 2009 2:12 pm

That cloud mass you mentioned about John is now appearing on the Melbourne 256km radar. West and Central Gippsland should receive some handy falls over the next day. Baw Baw with 15mm already, hopefully the Thomson catchment is also enjoying this activity.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  firestorm on Tue Sep 08, 2009 2:55 pm

Cold Grey and windy but no rain since this morning till 9am 3.2mm then 1mm after that hopefully a few showers over night but i look to be abit to far west to get the good stuff on the radar! Suspect but still 10.4mm from this system is still pretty good!

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  floydlove on Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:03 pm

9mm yesterday and 1mm today. Not big totals but at least it's still raining. Looking warm for the weekend.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:16 pm

Showers should increase for a period tonight and tend to a period of rain as we get some of that wrap around (mainly Central and Eastern suburbs) some of the NE dams have had 30mm another 30mm could fall there alone tonight

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Power Storm on Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:20 pm

Quite interesting last night with showers persisting, and we got 16.6mm of rainfall to 9am this morning, a bit of a suprise IMO, I was only expecting about 12mm or less. Most of today was fine, a couple of light showers, then some lovely sunshine, and it felt great in that sun!

So showers across the eastern half of the state tonight, tending to rain at times, particularly east of the eastern suburbs of Melbourne IMO. The west, remaining mostly dry apart from a local shower.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:28 pm

I think that rainband will make it to me Jake and I'm in the Inner North western suburbs and the city this time round which is what UKMet picked this afternoon and looking to go to script I'll be happy with another 5mm all going to plan.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:00 pm

Had 9mm here and its really set in now...great to see it really dumping over the yarra ranges dams too, could get the 20 or 30mm we were hoping for..
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Dez on Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:06 pm

According to melbournewater, the yarra catchments have had more rainfall this month, last month and the month before compared to last year. If only we didn't have such a dry summer this year...oh well.

Looks like East Melbourne is getting a lot of rain, seems more like rain then showers now. Great to see a lot of it hitting the catchments.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Luken on Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:12 pm

I am a little excited by that nice big blob of rain heading our way from the S/SE!

Only up to 5mm here since yesterday morning, but hopefully double or even triple that tonight!
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:26 pm

Must say I'm darn impressed with the models (EC particularly) for this event. The heavy showers have come right on target (though perhaps the heavy stuff is running ~3 hours late) and now we are into a wrap around. Certainly wouldn't have picked this from the radar or satellite picture this morning.

Looks like a solid period of rain for east central areas now with totals build quickly. Baw Baw is on 30mm and lots of places through the eastern burbs/Yarra Ranges are fast approaching 15-20mm. Hopefully we stay in this sweet spot and get an event that can give some meaningful runoff.

Latest EC has the wet continuing without a meaningful break until late tomorrow arvo but getting lighter - looks to me like a transition to drizzle showers to fine as the ridge moves in. Up to ~17mm for the event now in Ferny Creek so only 3mm to the bottom of my prediction Very Happy

Shame it's not affect areas further west - but it really is the east's turn!

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Dez on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:03 pm

Wow, I think there's something wrong with the BOM radar again. There's a few gaps in the rain on the radar but there shouldn't be... i think.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  mick on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:14 pm

Around 7-8 this am, it was so black and low the clouds, I couldnt believe it wasnt raining. Then this arvo, the radar from 5 to 7 is just insane. Normally down here, when these showers shifted east like they have, they would skip the coast and reform around karls place. This is 1970s spring conditions at their best. Good ole fashioned September School Hols weather.

If I was stuck ina freezer in 1980 and defrosted last week, I would say this summer would begin in mid november, december and january would be warm to hot, maybe one day over 100 a thunder storm a week. February would begin hot, a 2 week heat spell and then it would be variable and march would be cool and so on.

Its amazing to be living through such a change in the weather patterns, interesting for me in the city, but not fun for the bush.

I really do worry about the farmers in the west and north west this summer will be the last straw for many. There is nothing I can do for them but hope. It makes me very depressed as I have friends on the land.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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