Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  mick on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:14 pm

Around 7-8 this am, it was so black and low the clouds, I couldnt believe it wasnt raining. Then this arvo, the radar from 5 to 7 is just insane. Normally down here, when these showers shifted east like they have, they would skip the coast and reform around karls place. This is 1970s spring conditions at their best. Good ole fashioned September School Hols weather.

If I was stuck ina freezer in 1980 and defrosted last week, I would say this summer would begin in mid november, december and january would be warm to hot, maybe one day over 100 a thunder storm a week. February would begin hot, a 2 week heat spell and then it would be variable and march would be cool and so on.

Its amazing to be living through such a change in the weather patterns, interesting for me in the city, but not fun for the bush.

I really do worry about the farmers in the west and north west this summer will be the last straw for many. There is nothing I can do for them but hope. It makes me very depressed as I have friends on the land.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  windyrob on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:20 pm

Well I've scored 12mm already for this system so more than happy. Now I'm cheering for the catchments and gippsland getting a good drink. The catchments had really poor rainfall in Sept and Oct last year (less than 50mm per month in many cases) so if this can keep up we may actually see some good increases.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:30 pm

Yeah not looking good for the NW I did warn few my friends up there as long ago as in early July that the signs weren't good a few listened others thought I was being abit dramatic anyway time will tell.

Meanwhile down here O'Shannassy dam has had almost 50mm for this event

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:39 pm

Pea soup for up here tonight with moderate rain and drizzle. Now on ~18mm for the day Very Happy and just over 20mm for the event. Now looking to crack 40mm Laughing

Looks like a second wrap around band is moving up through Bass Strait towards Vic - not sure it will get "here" but worth keeping an eye on.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:22 pm

The showers for this event have had an impact up here as well despite being strongly skeptical at first myself. Heaps of instability around and very moist and 'heavy' atmosphere aiding the development of heavy showers. 10.7mm yesterday and today on top of 5.5mm overnight Sunday, so 16.3mm overall. Ranges have helped out heaps.

It is seriously wet out there now like Spring 'used to be' back in the 'good ol' days'. What a Face Sheets of water lying around in paddocks, every drain running, gutters on the side of the road are full, water in creeks that have been dry for months and large puddles everywhere. The ground is fully saturated and even a few mm causes a lot of surface water to accumulate and run off.

We've had 206.7mm here in the last 10 weeks which means we've averaged 20.7mm a week for that period and 2.9mm a day. That sort of rainfall used to be standard here back in the 80s and 90s (and much wetter many years), but these days it seems very wet because we are just not used to it anymore. Hopefully it can continue for as long as possible. Current forecast patterns look pretty ordinary with a continued unprecedented bias towards northerly airflow and the resulting potential for snap record heatwaves but it is nice to see rain continuing to appear in the model progs and some cooler days in there as well.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  norfolk on Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:27 pm

great to see most people are enjoying this rain. Was commenting yesterday how it looked good to see the roads wet, like I remember winters used to look like.
However tonight is back to that usual cold and dry conditions I am used to out here. I wonder if dry and hot conditions return this summer, if Mt Macedon may be an area to keep an eye on?

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  mick on Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:54 pm

Thats good rain, no doubt about it DB.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:05 pm

10.5mm so far for the day
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:27 pm

11mm here to now with the rain stopping and overcast skies remaining. I think showers will increase again overnight.

Not a bad result considering and top effort DJ forecasting this one through. Well done Smile I was out in Mooroolbark and the rain/drizzle was just insane there as it slides along the face of the Dandenongs and stacks up against the Christmas Hills. Certainly some very good runoff across all dams if this is the rainfall occurring there all day. A very solid event.

Now we have to hope for follow up.... cross everything!!
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Dez on Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:52 pm

Anyone have any photos? Very Happy Would love to see some nice run-off, etc. Something that I haven't seen in a local lake since the thunderstorm in November last year.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  jonesy on Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:53 pm

Baw Baw is up to 55mm now and rising,in addition to the 21mm to 9am today. You'd think the Thompson should be getting a nice little top up.
Did they say on the news tonight it's on 17% ? Skeptical about that

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:50 pm

Be very skeptical Jonesy. They will say that the dams have had like 8mm or something overnight. It makes me sick...

Anyhow cloud bases have lifted and rainfall has eased across Melbourne for now.

I don't think that band of rain will make it in southern Bass Strait but you never know.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:57 am

21mm so far another great result...extremely wet underfoot through the Yarra ranges which means some run off for the dams...not that we would know as they will tell us they haven't gone up at all...
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:18 am

A very wet night up in Ferny Creek with rain/fog/drzzle. Very low viz this morning - about 50m with the cloud base at about 250m.

About 25mm for overnight - my obs are pretty unreliable in these drizzle set up due to shading by trees. Looks like the best of it has gone up the middle of the range - expect that falls around Olinda will be in the 50 to 75mm range. With Baw Baw also showing 85mm.

Just to show how dry it is underneath Dandenong Creek at Baywater was essentially unchanged this morning. It is this underlying dryness that is killing the runoff and so much water is going into soils rather the running off. Locally in Ferny Creek there is no real runoff from the front face of the range.

Looks to me like the drizzle/showers should continue pretty much all days out east. Should clear some time overnight/into tomorrow morning.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:23 am

Well only 15mm down the hill with 3mm last hour with torrential drizzle.

Another 5-10mm over the hills today and perhaps here.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Mutley on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:33 am

Great falls overnight, with some good numbers around the catchments.

Mt St Leonard - 56mm
O'shannassy Reservoir - 45mm
Maroondah Reservoir - 31mm
Upper Yarra - 34mm

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm
This adds to Karls conspiricay theories Wink :
a) bad luck
b) Government built the dam in the wrong spot
c) faulty equipment
d) all of the above

I will let you come to your own conclusion, nevertheless the rain is still coming down in the East and we can expect good falls over the next 12 hours.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:46 am

14mm to now.
http://www.mansfieldweather.com/ No rain noted Howes Creek.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  windyrob on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:49 am

Thomson dam is stuck in a rain shadow behind Mt bawbaw. I only gets good rain from the south east, however the catchment usually gets much better rain than the dam site. Considering that Gippsland has been in drought due to lack of southerly rain its hardly surprising that so little rain has been recorded At the thomson this year. As far as equipment goes i'm actually suspicious of the O'shannassy gauge, its constantly reading higher than the nearby stations.
On a positive note, Maroondah dam has gone up by 1/2 meter since yesterday Cool
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Snowd_on on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:55 am

Mutley wrote:Great falls overnight, with some good numbers around the catchments.

Mt St Leonard - 56mm
O'shannassy Reservoir - 45mm
Maroondah Reservoir - 31mm
Upper Yarra - 34mm

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm
This adds to Karls conspiricay theories Wink :
a) bad luck
b) Government built the dam in the wrong spot
c) faulty equipment
d) all of the above

I will let you come to your own conclusion, nevertheless the rain is still coming down in the East and we can expect good falls over the next 12 hours.


Hey Mutley...
The total at the Thomson is of little significance. It is the totals in the areas around the dam that we need to watch, like BawBaw, Woods Point etc. These are the catchment areas and that's where you want the rain.
If Melbourne Water quote low figures it is probably because the record them from the dams themselves.
It is SOOOOOOOOO good to see some reasonable totals around the ranges.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:08 am

Good point Snow.

This is one hell of a drizzle here!! 17mm so far.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:28 am

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm

In these situations rainfall often increases by up to 5mm per 100m of elevatioin. Baw Baw would be about 1200m (give or take) above the Thompson dam so I'm not that surprised by the number - also if you look down the La Trobe Valley most places have had only 2-10mm so it is much lighter at low elevations.

The problem with Melbourne's runoff is the 13 year drought. The catchment soils are very deep and act as huge sponges. They have lost (about) 6 metres of rain (~20 feet) since 1996. A few inches is nothing by comparison and just gets soaked up. In Ferny Creek we have not seen the soils saturated since December 2007 with springs/seeps/bogs damp but mostly dry.

This "event" is now shaping up as the biggest through the Yarra Valley/Dandenongs since December last year. Baw Baw may well crack the 100mm Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Cascade on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:33 am

Congrats to everyone,good to here some inspiring reports for a change. I would like to see it push further north next week as the Hume weir is at 25%.

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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Luken on Wed Sep 09, 2009 7:34 am

18mm here now since Monday morning. So very happy.

Models seem to be all saying that Sunday into Monday will give us a bit more so the warm spell over Friday/Saturday shouldn't dry things out to much.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:20 am

~23mm here since Monday here. Very useful. Still thick drizzle here.


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:36 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Fat fingers..)
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:28 am

~17mm to 9am. still nice drizzle.
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Re: Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

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