Victoria: Southeast Low 6-10 September

Well I've scored 12mm already for this system so more than happy. Now I'm cheering for the catchments and gippsland getting a good drink. The catchments had really poor rainfall in Sept and Oct last year (less than 50mm per month in many cases) so if this can keep up we may actually see some good increases.

Yeah not looking good for the NW I did warn few my friends up there as long ago as in early July that the signs weren't good a few listened others thought I was being abit dramatic anyway time will tell.

Meanwhile down here O'Shannassy dam has had almost 50mm for this event

Pea soup for up here tonight with moderate rain and drizzle. Now on ~18mm for the day and just over 20mm for the event. Now looking to crack 40mm

Looks like a second wrap around band is moving up through Bass Strait towards Vic - not sure it will get "here" but worth keeping an eye on.

The showers for this event have had an impact up here as well despite being strongly skeptical at first myself. Heaps of instability around and very moist and 'heavy' atmosphere aiding the development of heavy showers. 10.7mm yesterday and today on top of 5.5mm overnight Sunday, so 16.3mm overall. Ranges have helped out heaps.

It is seriously wet out there now like Spring 'used to be' back in the 'good ol' days'. Sheets of water lying around in paddocks, every drain running, gutters on the side of the road are full, water in creeks that have been dry for months and large puddles everywhere. The ground is fully saturated and even a few mm causes a lot of surface water to accumulate and run off.

We've had 206.7mm here in the last 10 weeks which means we've averaged 20.7mm a week for that period and 2.9mm a day. That sort of rainfall used to be standard here back in the 80s and 90s (and much wetter many years), but these days it seems very wet because we are just not used to it anymore. Hopefully it can continue for as long as possible. Current forecast patterns look pretty ordinary with a continued unprecedented bias towards northerly airflow and the resulting potential for snap record heatwaves but it is nice to see rain continuing to appear in the model progs and some cooler days in there as well.

great to see most people are enjoying this rain. Was commenting yesterday how it looked good to see the roads wet, like I remember winters used to look like.
However tonight is back to that usual cold and dry conditions I am used to out here. I wonder if dry and hot conditions return this summer, if Mt Macedon may be an area to keep an eye on?

Thats good rain, no doubt about it DB.

10.5mm so far for the day

11mm here to now with the rain stopping and overcast skies remaining. I think showers will increase again overnight.

Not a bad result considering and top effort DJ forecasting this one through. Well done I was out in Mooroolbark and the rain/drizzle was just insane there as it slides along the face of the Dandenongs and stacks up against the Christmas Hills. Certainly some very good runoff across all dams if this is the rainfall occurring there all day. A very solid event.

Now we have to hope for follow up.... cross everything!!

Anyone have any photos? Would love to see some nice run-off, etc. Something that I haven't seen in a local lake since the thunderstorm in November last year.

Baw Baw is up to 55mm now and rising,in addition to the 21mm to 9am today. You'd think the Thompson should be getting a nice little top up.
Did they say on the news tonight it's on 17% ? Skeptical about that

Be very skeptical Jonesy. They will say that the dams have had like 8mm or something overnight. It makes me sick...

Anyhow cloud bases have lifted and rainfall has eased across Melbourne for now.

I don't think that band of rain will make it in southern Bass Strait but you never know.

21mm so far another great result...extremely wet underfoot through the Yarra ranges which means some run off for the dams...not that we would know as they will tell us they haven't gone up at all...

A very wet night up in Ferny Creek with rain/fog/drzzle. Very low viz this morning - about 50m with the cloud base at about 250m.

About 25mm for overnight - my obs are pretty unreliable in these drizzle set up due to shading by trees. Looks like the best of it has gone up the middle of the range - expect that falls around Olinda will be in the 50 to 75mm range. With Baw Baw also showing 85mm.

Just to show how dry it is underneath Dandenong Creek at Baywater was essentially unchanged this morning. It is this underlying dryness that is killing the runoff and so much water is going into soils rather the running off. Locally in Ferny Creek there is no real runoff from the front face of the range.

Looks to me like the drizzle/showers should continue pretty much all days out east. Should clear some time overnight/into tomorrow morning.

Well only 15mm down the hill with 3mm last hour with torrential drizzle.

Another 5-10mm over the hills today and perhaps here.

Great falls overnight, with some good numbers around the catchments.

Mt St Leonard - 56mm
O'shannassy Reservoir - 45mm
Maroondah Reservoir - 31mm
Upper Yarra - 34mm

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm
This adds to Karls conspiricay theories :
a) bad luck
b) Government built the dam in the wrong spot
c) faulty equipment
d) all of the above

I will let you come to your own conclusion, nevertheless the rain is still coming down in the East and we can expect good falls over the next 12 hours.

14mm to now.
http://www.mansfieldweather.com/ No rain noted Howes Creek.

Thomson dam is stuck in a rain shadow behind Mt bawbaw. I only gets good rain from the south east, however the catchment usually gets much better rain than the dam site. Considering that Gippsland has been in drought due to lack of southerly rain its hardly surprising that so little rain has been recorded At the thomson this year. As far as equipment goes i'm actually suspicious of the O'shannassy gauge, its constantly reading higher than the nearby stations.
On a positive note, Maroondah dam has gone up by 1/2 meter since yesterday

Mutley wrote:Great falls overnight, with some good numbers around the catchments.

Mt St Leonard - 56mm
O'shannassy Reservoir - 45mm
Maroondah Reservoir - 31mm
Upper Yarra - 34mm

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm
This adds to Karls conspiricay theories :
a) bad luck
b) Government built the dam in the wrong spot
c) faulty equipment
d) all of the above

I will let you come to your own conclusion, nevertheless the rain is still coming down in the East and we can expect good falls over the next 12 hours.

Hey Mutley...
The total at the Thomson is of little significance. It is the totals in the areas around the dam that we need to watch, like BawBaw, Woods Point etc. These are the catchment areas and that's where you want the rain.
If Melbourne Water quote low figures it is probably because the record them from the dams themselves.
It is SOOOOOOOOO good to see some reasonable totals around the ranges.

Good point Snow.

This is one hell of a drizzle here!! 17mm so far.

Mt Baw Baw - 85mm, however down the road at Thomson Dam 9.6mm

In these situations rainfall often increases by up to 5mm per 100m of elevatioin. Baw Baw would be about 1200m (give or take) above the Thompson dam so I'm not that surprised by the number - also if you look down the La Trobe Valley most places have had only 2-10mm so it is much lighter at low elevations.

The problem with Melbourne's runoff is the 13 year drought. The catchment soils are very deep and act as huge sponges. They have lost (about) 6 metres of rain (~20 feet) since 1996. A few inches is nothing by comparison and just gets soaked up. In Ferny Creek we have not seen the soils saturated since December 2007 with springs/seeps/bogs damp but mostly dry.

This "event" is now shaping up as the biggest through the Yarra Valley/Dandenongs since December last year. Baw Baw may well crack the 100mm

Congrats to everyone,good to here some inspiring reports for a change. I would like to see it push further north next week as the Hume weir is at 25%.

18mm here now since Monday morning. So very happy.

Models seem to be all saying that Sunday into Monday will give us a bit more so the warm spell over Friday/Saturday shouldn't dry things out to much.

~23mm here since Monday here. Very useful. Still thick drizzle here.

~17mm to 9am. still nice drizzle.

A friend reports 55mm from Olinda on top of 6mm to 9am yesterday. Also about ~5mm since so a ~48 hour total of nearly 70mm. That's the best soaking for the year... and still drizzling.