Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Power Storm Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:38 pm

The cell NW of Warrnambool is heading straight for me! Going to get interesting in the next hour here. Lots more development around the state now too.

DC449 Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:41 pm

Had my eye on the area west of Melb for quite some time now... I hope it develops

**Johnno** Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:44 pm

Great pics Rik

rikjpool Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:57 pm

THanks for the Kudos guys.

And Anthony thanks for the update, was nice to know i had made the right choice after getting your message. Smile

THat second band might just keep building throughout the night. I might still be in for a show after seeing Tripod tonight. I finish at 9pm, so if there is anything around that time send me a message 'ey. Smile

**Anthony Violi** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:01 pm

Im sure one of us will...forecaster on ABC believes as the band moves through activity will continue through the night so could be a beauty..

**Johnno** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:04 pm

DJ, Karl, Anthony Violi, Jake, Andrew and others what you make of the models again tonight for Mondays system? Seems like EC has shifted the low for Monday North again more north than GFS anyway while JMA and NOGAPS keep it closer to us. To me looks like EC is also keeping the low closer to us Monday and even Cup day, Cup day itself looks showery to me going by EC now?

GFS wants to put widespread showers and storms ahead of the low for Central and Eastern Victoria late Sunday into Monday morning which I find abit odd but feasible but as I said GFS has the system 800ks further south than EC Monday now has the front/trough over Western Vic already Monday morning where EC isnt moving it as fast

Incase the guys don't see it on the previous page Cool

DarkEye Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:06 pm

Nice pics Rik, particularly the last one.

Quite pleasant down here, the seabreeze has picked up which has cooled things down a bit and those of you storm chasing do take care and take lots of pretty pictures for us to see.

mick Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:06 pm

Nice pics and great to see!

Ants think theres going to be another bout of good rain here.

Dead calm on the bay, has been for days. The annual fish kill is on this weekend, perfect weather for it but too cold for snapper atm.

DC449 Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:08 pm

Bay looks peaceful eyy..... Will the sea breeze help or hinder?

Malleefarmer Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:09 pm

Well we had some interesting development up here today and seemed to dodge decent rain but that's OK at this time of year. A couple of fires were started from lightining striking way out from the storms and rain. nothing major but a reminder that we are getting into that time of year. Still getting some cloud developing now and I reckon we will have some photo shooting for a little while tonight.

Leasy Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:14 pm

I just came on to say awesome pics Rik! I too like the last one the most! Hoping things kick off tonight-would love a night light show! Haven't had one in ages!

**Johnno** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:14 pm

DC449 wrote:Bay looks peaceful eyy..... Will the sea breeze help or hinder?

There is no seabreeze mate winds are NE right across Melbourne and the bays

**Johnno** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:20 pm

Johnno wrote:DJ, Karl, Anthony Violi, Jake, Andrew and others what you make of the models again tonight for Mondays system? Seems like EC has shifted the low for Monday North again more north than GFS anyway while JMA and NOGAPS keep it closer to us. To me looks like EC is also keeping the low closer to us Monday and even Cup day, Cup day itself looks showery to me going by EC now?

GFS wants to put widespread showers and storms ahead of the low for Central and Eastern Victoria late Sunday into Monday morning which I find abit odd but feasible but as I said GFS has the system 800ks further south than EC Monday now has the front/trough over Western Vic already Monday morning where EC isnt moving it as fast

Incase the guys don't see it on the previous page

**hillybilly** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:25 pm

Well not quite the day I was expecting in Melbourne but not complaining. Had 8mm in Ferny Creek with sky high humidity. Also some fantastic falls in the catchments (from some of the most intense/slow moving storms I've seen).

Quite an amazing area of convergence into the storm complex over the west. Southerlies on the south side with temperature in the teens and northerlies on the north side into the mid 30s. That is a potent combination and must be making for some great storms. This has not been well picked by any of the models so wouldn't be too confident about them for the next 12 hours.

Sadly too much Cirrus east of this complex (central areas in particular) so only a few pretty poor Cu, though wouldn't rule out something breaking through late in the day.

My gut feeling is that the western complex will weaken and struggle to get into central areas (though could make for some night time lightening to our west). BUT given such a strong area of convergence and the very high temperatures which are going to be slow to drop it might prove me wrong. Is a classic case of watching the sky, warnings and radar. A fair chance it will broaden into patchy showers/rain with the odd rumble.

Tomorrow looks like another doozie with the focus shifted a little east though residual cloud from the storms might be a problem for central areas Idea

Next Monday/Tuesday look crazy (potential for plenty more storms and strong winds) - something to chat about tomorrow Smile

Flangfest Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:41 pm

Lightning tracker lit up like a Christmas tree Smile

now for it to come to Melbourne metro.

**Karl Lijnders** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:43 pm

Yes DJ I think your analysis is pretty much in line with my thoughts on this.

It has the potential to go either way - one thing in our favour is the late maximum, convergent zone developing on the southern complex and sky high humidity as DJ mentioned. I personally think we are penned in for another 2-10mm of rain overnight.

As for thunderstorms, my experience in these situations is that the storms will make it. But don't take that as being gospel. I just have that feeling. But time will tell. I suspect lightning visible on dusk for the western suburbs and coming into view for the rest at about 10pm. On current track the storms will reach the western suburbs and Geelong by 9-10pm and CBD by 10-11pm and the eastern suburbs and Dandenongs by about midnight.

Things that need to happen for us to get that result will be the regeneration of the cells within the complex, fresh convection fanning out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms and the southerly winds to atleast reach the southern bay and both peninsulas at least.

Tomorrow looks sensational but will talk more about that closer to midnight in lieu of the next 6-10 hour period as this will play a major part in what happens tomorrow.

As for early next week, well I think build some bunkers, but that is bobbling around in the haze of this system so will have to wait until we get past tomorrow afternoons convection to have a better idea but a nice development!!

As for the totals in the catchments, stunning!!!

Rikki sensational shots, well done. If you need anything call me Smile

Yes Patrick the lightning is coming and I will meet you in the lounge room to watch it later brother of mine!!!

droughtbreaker Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:45 pm

Dud day today. Cant say I'm surprised. Always thick and stubborn middle level cloud here when DPs get into the mid to high teens, it's happened many times before when we've expected a massive storm outbreak but it's been killed off by cloud. I'm actually expecting the same tomorrow so another dud there.

Monday will be an awesome day if the models hold. GFS and EC looking the goods. EC perhaps a bit better with quite a strong front/low developing over us. That's the day I'm interested in at this stage. We'll still have the heat and humidity but this time some strong dynamics to play with.

GFS has insisted for quite some time that CAPE and LI will remain very healthy right through to around midnight. Of course it is rare to see these slow moving storm bands in the west reach here when they peak in the evening but on previous occasions the models have stabilised the atmosphere right on sundown, this time they haven't. Just a little interesting IMO. Anyway, being situated on the west central ranges here I have at least some chance of geting something. Actually got a bit of sun before, very ironic that it stays cloudy all day and clears just an hour and a half before sunset when it's all too late. Rolling Eyes

BTW, when is the last time we had widespread storms in central areas where a large area was affected. These days storms are very isolated and it is sheer luck to get under one. I remember years ago if there were storms forecast most people would usually get one. Rolling Eyes

**Karl Lijnders** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:46 pm

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Alpine and parts of the Northern Country, Northeast, Wimmera, East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland and Western Forecast Districts.

Issued at 6:31 pm Friday, 30 October 2009.

Severe thunderstorms have been observed on weather radar between Yarrawonga and Rutherglen, capable of producing large hail and localised flash flooding. These cells are slow moving and further severe thunderstorm cells may develop in the area over the next few hours.

Severe thunderstorms cells continue in the west of the State between Horsham and Warrnambool, moving eastwards at 25 km/hr. These cells are linked to the passage of a southwest wind change and also have the potential to produce large hail and localised flash flooding over the next few hours.

Thunderstorm activity over the eastern ranges is waning, however isolated severe thunderstorms are still possible for the next hour or two. Severe thunderstorms in this region are also slow moving and have the potential to produce localised flash flooding.

Large hail to 2cm in diameter has been reported from a thunderstorm cell near Rutherglen from a Bureau storm spotter.

-----------------

I am not aware of anyone in the region at Rutherglen (perhaps Bussy from Auspax) but it is certainly a huge effort to get 2cm hail in conditions such as this. Such powerful updraughts!!!

I will post further updates on conditions on the hour just to keep everyone in the loop Smile

**Anthony Violi** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:51 pm

Yes im surprised its taken EC so long to jump on to what NOGAPS has been saying since tuesday, so much moisture to work with ahead of the low and associated strong front is a recipe for enormous storms to finish off the sequence..

I dont think tonight is a question of whether those storms will make it, its whether they have enough to regenerate ahead of themselves..the atmosphere is very unstable and extremely humid, so if there is enough cooling tonight with the warm temps i expect them to go for a long while through the night. Granted upper trough is weakening but may still have enough kick.

**Anthony Violi** Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:52 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Dud day today. Cant say I'm surprised. Always thick and stubborn middle level cloud here when DPs get into the mid to high teens, it's happened many times before when we've expected a massive storm outbreak but it's been killed off by cloud. I'm actually expecting the same tomorrow so another dud there.

Monday will be an awesome day if the models hold. GFS and EC looking the goods. EC perhaps a bit better with quite a strong front/low developing over us. That's the day I'm interested in at this stage. We'll still have the heat and humidity but this time some strong dynamics to play with.

GFS has insisted for quite some time that CAPE and LI will remain very healthy right through to around midnight. Of course it is rare to see these slow moving storm bands in the west reach here when they peak in the evening but on previous occasions the models have stabilised the atmosphere right on sundown, this time they haven't. Just a little interesting IMO. Anyway, being situated on the west central ranges here I have at least some chance of geting something. Actually got a bit of sun before, very ironic that it stays cloudy all day and clears just an hour and a half before sunset when it's all too late.

BTW, when is the last time we had widespread storms in central areas where a large area was affected. These days storms are very isolated and it is sheer luck to get under one. I remember years ago if there were storms forecast most people would usually get one.

Tomorrow i would say..

droughtbreaker Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:04 pm

Well, tomorrow is probably the first time in my life I am hoping for extreme temperatures. Hopefully we can wake up to mostly clear skies with scattered ACCAS and it stays that way with temperatures soaring into the low to mid 30s. If that happens it will explode tomorrow. If it is anything like today and countless other similar days we've had before that I'll be really annoyed.

AmaroK Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:14 pm

Yeah i have to admit, i think most central areas will not see anything until tomorow at this point. Very humid oustide still and getting the first little bit of direct sunlight i have seen all day as the sun sets. May see a fair bit of activity in outlying areas tonight, and could be isolated stuff happening for a large part of the night.

What do we think the likely hood is for me in rowville tomorrow? Razz

oh and frankston, i will be stuck down there most of tomorrow.

droughtbreaker Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:17 pm

From what I've heard the trough is due tomorrow in central areas and thunderstorms may focus along a line. If we get clear air and therefore high heat with the continued high humidity it could be an absolute doozy.

Looking promising to my west at the moment. Thick dark grey cloud and sheet of cirrus. Looks like the head of the storm band to the west.

norfolk Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:25 pm

Well the second day without seeing or hearing any storms. The sun made a few peeks out of this cloud this afternoon that bumped my temperature to 29.

Out west Jake must be seeing something good! Radar shows rain and storms from Horsham near to Cape Otway. Today was going to be my hottest day, but it didnt happen. Mind you the 36c at Swan Hill shows the heat is there! Hopefully more sun tomorrow for higher temps and stronger storms.

damiantheomen Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:27 pm

The BOM must think the thunderstorms will die before they reach melb judgin by the areas marked.

Looks like a nice line coming thru tho on the radar so I would be happy with anything to refill my tanks right now

Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 12 IDV65643

Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 12 IDV65643

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