Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Radar has perked up a bit its warm enough.............nah we all know what happens when we say someting, even reverse weather psychology aint reliable nowdays, but might be safe to say the weather now moving from the west will do somethng after dark..............somewhere.

yes i agree, something will happen, somewhere, sometime, someday......

just wait and see, certainly is the most moist i have felt the atmosphere for a long time.....i absolutely love it!

I wish this would happen after every warm day. Something to look forward to

37 forecast for Mildura tomorrow.

That severe thunderstorm warning chart is only for areas that are threatened by severe thunderstorms now. It doesn't give any predictions of what will happen later tonight. Storms have now moved out of the STW area and further east.

may actually stay up a little late tonight to see what comes of this "front"......

had a good couple of solid downpours today - one in lysterfeild and then another down in Black rock but nothing too severe that I thought I needed to get under cover for.

Hopefully whats coming through out west fills my tanks and then some!

OK so at this time it seems to be going to schedule as I see. Eastward progression and fanning out of new convection supported by outflow winds from the main cells which is causing local convergence, evident along the new echoes through the western northern country and over the Mortlake region with modest increase in the echoes in that region.

Otherwise the next major development is the middle level towers developing and I think I observed a region of surface convection towards the west developing rapidly over the bay and to my west/southwest. This needs to be watched.

It is extremely unstable...does anyone else sense it??

Jake how you going down there? Cape Otway going to be destroyed. Port Campbell observations will be interesting by morning.

Thomson dam copping a moderate to locally heavy area of rain today. Should of seen falls locally of 30mm there today.

Rutherglen has had 35mm of rain with thunderstorms this afternoon with Biaggra on the NE border with NSW having 37mm this afternoon.

The Avon Catchment has had an average of 40-100mm this afternoon from thunderstorms and will need to be monitored tomorrow for minor flooding!!

Wes and friend are currently out near Yan Yean sitting it out. I have suggested move west to Sunbury to sit in a region where you can travel fast. The line is developing new cells on the northern flank and is inline with us here in Melbourne. Still 25-26C throughout. Light winds.

Anthony in Birchip I am sure will get on and give a more detailed synopsis of thunderstorms there this evening, but has another thunderstorm going through with a CG within 300m of his house!!!

the smell of moisture in the air is just amazing

my cameras are charged and ready to go, but i will probably chicken out if it does actually happen!

Looks like the lightning activity is holding and even increasing a fraction, a good sign of increasing instability. Things should really take shape in the next hour.

Still think there is something going on closer into Melbourne. Might form over the eastern suburbs before the main line gets here in the next 3hrs.

i know what you mean Karl, when i was out with the dog in the park earlier it looks suspiciously like it was trying to make some convection but purposely doing so in a hidden manner, so we wouldnt notice! LOL

watching and waiting...

The sky here is looking fairly unstable in patches. DP has been sitting around 16C for the last few hours. I guess it's a waiting game for melb central.

Looks like the eastern ranges and nothern country are dying out at the same time the west band is picking up...
Looks like tonite to get somthing over the metro area, and probably clear for tomorrow morning where clear skies and temps will build through the day and then the clouds expecting to build in the afternoon... I reckon we could hit 33-34 tomorrow

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An hour or so old but promising.

somethings happening as my dog (who has never experienced a thunderstorm) is getting increasingly agitated as they do when something is on its way....

cicadas are out in full force, its deafening

Absolutley amazing!!! One of the best thunderstorms I have seen in ages. A great start to the storm season!

Had been watching this cell on the radar whilst on the bus, but when I got home I realised the BoM had issued the STW for my area, so I checked models etc... radar/SAT confirmed the storms were growing and moving SE towards me!!! Started off really black to my west, you could see some of the Cb but there was cloud obscuring the view, however I have a great video of all of it which I will post on youtube etc... later. Lightning was absolutley amazing, heaps of CG's and flangs and the rain, was sooooooo heavy! Localised flooding around too. Winds also got strong in it and we had a power outage. There was also a small fire started in plantation just next to our farm, however its out now. But the video explains it all better than what I could. I am going to check the rain gauge soon to see how much we got.

OMG.... latest radar looks like its back-building, and just checked the skies out west and magnificent, more convection just developing to my WNW.... I think I might be in for round 2 soon! More heavy rain as well..... We shall see.

Looks as if there could be some developing storms over the bay atm.

Mick thanks

The satellite image is important there. If you note the sharpness of the anvil on the western flank, this gives you an indication that there is still strong support and fresh convection happening within the complex given the radar images now and that the image is an hour old, so regeneration is occuring.

Mid level showers and storms firing offshore, keep watching the radar, particularly in the outer SE and E suburbs in the next 2 hours.

Storms converging right over the Ballarat region so looking very promising for us here in Melbourne. Now we need the western suburb folk and western VIC folk to let us know what is happening on the lightning front!!!

Outflow winds of 30-40 knots have hit the Cape Otway region from the NNW so closer to the core, winds could be nearer 100kmh.

This is getting quite exciting.

Awesome stuff Jake. You get a bit of everything down there, great place for weather.

Getting a little excited at the latest radar image. Models indicating high instability levels to continue overnight seems to be on the mark at this stage. Once it gets dark enough I'll be able to report on what I can see to the west lightning wise.

I can confirm CGs every 45s to the south over northern Bass Strait with fresh convection.

Can also confirm rain curtain developing from convection to my WSW on my doorstep with nice inflow band.

Just had another thundery shower go through here with the best lightning so far. One struck within 300m of the house and the bang/crack was HUGE! Anyway got another 4mm out of it so up to 5mm so far but reckon we will get more tonight. Still virtually no wind when the storms pass and sticky as all hell!

Im gonna go have a look over Bass strait now....

Just saw a flash and a rumble outside in Moorabbin (Melbourne metro).

Confirm a CG. On doorstep at the moment watching the cell popped up near springvale

Lots of stuff now firing up in central Vic. With the slow movement could see some very heavy falls if your lucky of the these. Has the potential to be one of those nights where cloud top cooling keeps things going all night.

BTW looking across the models ACCESS seems to have the best handle on things and hasn't changes in 3+ days. It got the convection today in the west and stalls the trough west of Melbourne tomorrow with a rainfall/storms foccusing on central/east central areas. It then brings the Monday low as an easterly low with heavy rain (like the EC scenario but a little further north).

BTW just got a BIG boom from the storm just south of us