Victoria: Heatwave November 13th-20th 2009

Is a bit of a break (for some) Thur/Fri so part B of the long heatwave thread. Hopefully we won't need part C.

I'm confused which one are we supposed to post in?????

anyway just an interesting note for you all - the other week after all the rain we had - yes remember that stuff (easily forgotten I know) - all the grass was green and luch and thick, now it is a pile of yellow/brown dust- central median strips ect all just completly toasted, didn't have time to even get started

Does not look as hot on Saturday now. Temperatures in the low to mid 30's across the south instead of high 30's, however the northern regions should continue the sweltering with 40 degree heat. Sunday looks the hottest with a south to southwest wind change appproaching the state [entering western Victoria during the afternoon and central parts during the evening or at night]. We should have freshening northwesterly winds making it a bad fire weather day and temperatures above 40 in the north and temps mid to high 30's over the south, possibly touching 40 at some locations. There does not look to be very much rainfall associated with the change apart from a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly near the change.

A lot milder after that but temps becoming very hot again in the north by Wednesday, then throughout by Thursday.

Today, a fine hot day. Temps near 34 degrees. A little cloud here this afternoon.

Massive Cbs in the near distance coming home this evening but absolutely nothing showing on radar. Quite bizarre.

33C again by the looks of things, my thermometer is getting hit by the sun now at around 5-6pm so I can't give an accurate reading now unless I'm home and the maximum is before then. Getting used to the heat very rapidly. It's almost scary, a 34C day feels like around 30C to me now whereas years ago I would have felt the heat a lot, we are truly becoming seasoned desert dwellers.

I conducted some research this morning about the current weather situation and make some groundbreaking discoveries. The evidence was proven to be 100% correct which is mindblowing. I put together a document which is a bit longwinded but well worth the read. Here is it below if you have the time to read it.

November Heatwave:

The heatwave we are experiencing at the moment is due to extremely hot air from Northern Australia currently over us.

The End.

Perhaps a bit of hope right at the end of the heatwave with a lot of signs indicating that it could go out with a bang. Massive MJO signal racing through phase 3 and likely to hit phase 4 or 5 around the time the models are progging a major cold front/trough/low pressure area through the SE. All that convection on the satellite image to the west is a sign of what may be coming our way. With a possible major moisture feed and high humidity in general and very intense heat over us when the trough/change hits expect a major widespread thundery rain event. Just thought I'd get in early with this.

Hot weather affecting you Anthony??

Guys this thread is for the weekend and next week heat. Just follow the dates..

Looking like mid week is looking nasty

EC is steadily shifting towards a significant but short lived southerly/southeasterly showery event Mon-Tues with some OK rainfall in the south. This is then followed by another burst of heat - it has 850T of near 25C on Wed in the northwest.

Next week is looking pretty interesting with a more dynamic pattern.

In inland areas the heat is going to grind on - and one suspects we are going to start to see runs at November record highs Sun->onwards.

I'm with droughtbreaker wrt MJO pulse. Let's hope it doesn't stall in phase 3/4.
In the meantime, I'm getting nervous about Wed/Thurs next week. Nasty looking winds could develop from the North.

I'm also intrigued by the lack of grunt in the seabreezes this week. I suppose with Bass Strait and the Bay being a few degrees hotter than normal, that's a possible explanation.

Parallels with Nov 1982 could be drawn, although all this hot water in Bass Strait will probably not give us the cold temps which occurred in Dec 1982.

Yeah stratospear here is todays average temp for Port Phillip bay and it is now at 19.3c up another 0.5c since yesterday and 2c since Monday. Northern parts of the bay the temp is over 20c now.

If you look properly the temp is now higher across the Northern parts of Port Phillip Bay than at any point during the 1st half of January this year, we are running 2 months ahead of time with the warm bay temps which I find quite phenominal

http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html


Here it is also shown buy the warm anomalies across the entire SE coast of Australia including Bass Straight and Port Phillip bay

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&c=ssta



Could help with the showers Monday and Early Tuesday with much more warmth could give some more oompth into these showers & may also help us out with future events.

A nice juicy cut off low slow moving near the Prom would come in very handy about now

Yeah, very interesting with the effect of the heatwave raising the bay temps to record levels and Bass Strait etc and even more so considering the low EC places over us Monday/Tuesday as several have mentioned, you'd have to think the warm bay temps and Bass Strait would help enormously with increasing the showers over us. It looks like turning SE for a period too Monday night which could make things very interesting for western suburbs and particularly for my area. Fingers crossed, desperately hoping GFS is being stupid again and EC wins out.

I recall we have a similar warm spell a few years back when the Bay got exceptionally warm in summer. Soon after we witnessed the most extraordinary drizzle event with 20mm overnight in suburbs like Box Hill. Did strike me at the time that it was classical Sydney weather.

The synoptics for early next week look good, but I suspect the system is going to be quite starved of moisture which is why the rainfall totals are so low. Hopefully that changes.

Fine weather today. Morning cloud cleared to sunny conditions and temperature got to around 28 degrees. Winds were also light and we actually got an afternoon seabreeze today

Still expecting Sunday to be rather hot ahead of the wind change, but no rainfall IMO apart from a thundery shower across the ranges. I am not thinking EC will be right about Monday with the low, but we shall see.

Thursday next week looks to be rather nasty, in terms of temps and fire weather. Models are still changing around however, but something to keep an eye on. May even see some storms and showers near the change next Thursday from the west later into Friday.

14C here atm which was this morning's minimum. It has been around 18C at this time most of the nights we have had this heatwave so basically the coolest air we have had over us for about 4 days. 8/8 cloud cover also so not expecting the temperature to drop too much more but still likely to feel quite cool tomorrow morning. Not sure about tomorrows max, it will warm up rather quickly in the afternoon but the morning might stay fairly cool here.

11.4C overnight in Ferny Creek - still way above average but almost half the previous few nights Also a bit of hill fog from stratus.

Suspect it will warm up quickly with the sun but then sea breeze should establish in the south. A stinker in the north.

The southerly strengthens tomorrow but with hot uppers will be a day of striking contrast been a mild humid coastal strip and an oven like north.

EC is predicting a soggy end to this heatwave late next week. At this stage 30mm over Northern and Central Victoria.... although Melbourne will be in a rain shadow.

The rain looks hopeful, but Thursday next week looks beyond NASTY. 850T of 26C in northwest Victoria with 850hPa winds around 30-40 knots. Without cloud those observations would suggest that the SA, Vic, NSW and Tasmania record highs for November might all fall next week.

Let's hope that this doesn't come off...

EC has 31mm for the Melbourne city next Friday Stratospear but this far out seems bit far fetched to me but neverthesless its good to see something being finally progged by some models

I'd be wary of those models though, how often do they get rainfall right?

I'm thinking it will probably be at least 2 weeks before we see anything worth mentioning, but am very hopeful that I'm wrong.

Dams have remained on 38.1 this week, Id expect the slide down to begin this weekend. Things have dried out very quickly, although the gums are in fantastic flower around here. Going to be a tough slog.

gosh if anyone comes driving through here you will see there is so little green now. It looks like the middle of summer!

Latest EC is in. Not much change - continuing very hot next two days inland, then a brief cooling (particularly in the south) and then a second surge of high heat before a significant change around Thursday night/Friday.

BTW an interesting ob from across the border (for Adelaide) which has missed this slight cooling enjoyed by Vic.....

March 2008: 15 consecutive days over 35
Jan-Feb 2009: 9 consecutive days over 35
Nov 2009: 6 consecutive days over 35 (likely to be at least

Previously there had never been more than 8 consecutive days over 35.

That looks like 3 one hundred year heatwaves in 18 months

The end of the progs are extraordinary with one of the most unusual lows I've seen (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009111300!!/) which probably means it won't happen. All hell would break-out with that low - floods, super cells, dust storms, record heat (you name it!). Would be not unlike that dust storm system a few months back.

Dear oh dear.. IF EC was on drugs this morning its on SUPER DRUGS tonight that is extradinary the pattern and progs it puts us in From Wednesday to Monday Like you said DJ have never seen a pattern like that in a 5 day period very bizzare. Personally I don't think it will happen but do believe we will get some sort of rain event as there is cold air definetly progged to move over WA towards the end of its run so whether a low of cloudband comes down over us from it remains to be seen.

In the meantime 2 more days of heat not so bad down here though very hot up North. Monday may get couple of showers in the south with fresh to strong SSW winds. Tuesday clears up quickly then then weirdness begins Wednesday to Friday not so bad and perhaps believeable with troughs/cloudbands and front to come through by Friday which would give us some reasonable rain I would think and few showers Thursday as well.
Then Saturday another low from the west ahead of another low from the NW after that. At the moment up to Friday is quite believeable but after that it gets to weird for my liking but imagine the Ec scenario coming off it would be extradionary if it actually happend

I have been saying for a week keep an eye after the 18th of November as I expect this pattern (dry/heat) to break down but gees EC takes the cake.. Still I expect some sort of breakdown in this pattern about that date which is mid week onwards next week.

And to confirm the rain will come I am going away Friday to Sunday so watch it come down guys never seems to fail when I go away always something happening.

I wouldn't put it beyond our climate system these days for that scenario (the EC one) to come off. If we can get a weather pattern as bizarre as we have seen the last week or so no reason why we can't get the reverse happening in a weeks time. Remembering here that the air mass hasn't dried out much at all. Still in high single figure to double figure DPs in the southern half of the state. Any low like what EC is progging will have moisture to work with and the potential for massive rain, especially if it developed into an easterly dip. All massive speculation though and that far out it's almost a certainty not to happen. I agree with John though that we should get some rain, storms and eventually much cooler and showery weather at the end of next week and beyond.

Early estimates for next Thursday are 35 - 38c, so that's the only next day to get ready for from what forecasts say.