Victoria: Heatwave November 13th-20th 2009

Melbourne currently 30.8, Coldstream 19.

Well, I've probably just hit the minimum here. 23C just before now up to 25C, won't be surprised if it's high 20s when I wake up tomorrow morning.

Andrew, what is your take on the 06z GFS run?

still 29c in the city.....it is going to be a very very warm night!

Sniper wrote:Andrew, what is your take on the 06z GFS run?

Well, it's delayed the rain until Saturday night/Sunday morning (still looks like 30-50mm) But aside from that it has that low back early in the week after next and that setup would produce massive totals over central and eastern parts of the state in particular. With the scenario right at the end of the run with the SE convergent flow around the low and a warm bay there would be carnage here locally. I can usually mark in 50mm at least with that sort of system. A lot of warm humid air (tropical air) would be sucked into that low if it were to come off.

Not sure about GFS if we can really expect the delay in the front coming through, although if it does I guess Saturday could easily become a massive storm day with very warm air still hanging around and a load of moisture with the low pressure area stalling over us.

38c in Mildura at 10pm and 32-34c across much of the north and 28-30c around the city Wow

Parts of the north might not drop below 30c over night all that cloud will keep the heat in unreal night and INSANELY hot day up there tomorrow might see 43-45c up in N NW Vic scary stuff for November hope they also get 20mm of rain on the weekend

Hot 36 hours ahead

Latest GFS has between 20C and 22C 850T on and south of the ranges tomorrow but tending more towards 20C the closer you get to the coast and bay. If it is sunny for most of the day and the very hot air mixes down fully to the surface, dry air, etc. etc. then Melbourne certainly has a chance to get to 40C. If it is fairly cloudy though, or conditions aren't ideal with higher humidity etc. then it will fall just short of 40C.

Thursday night is another story with 850T reaching 25C. Melbourne will be lucky to get a minimum much below 30C I reckon tomorrow night unless somehow we fluke some storms in that region. Luckily a steady milder change comes through early Friday morning so temps won't get too high. If this change was delayed any further we would be looking at 43C in Melbourne, so perhaps the timing will work in our favour and we may avoid the worst of the heat.

Still, the specifics could all change again by tomorrow morning and we could be blasted with the worst of it.

Ah Houston, we have lightning and thunder here

Edit: Just the one flash and roll of thunder. We aren't going to have a December'03 storm event are we?

Edit 2: Yay, I was starting to doubt myself, but WZ tracker has a nice little CG in metro area. Another thunder day!!!

Atmosphere appears to be de-stabilising, quite rapidly in the last 30mins or so. Chance that a few areas may get a rumble overnight.

All points to a pretty explosive 2-3 days IMO!!

sniper must have got lost like that old couple from Yass going to get the paper

just had a short but heavy shower, so loud i thought it was just the wind and tree's rustling

its VERY steamy and warm outside now!

typhoon29 wrote:sniper must have got lost like that old couple from Yass going to get the paper

Hahahaha!!
I thought someone was on my roof with a torch as I saw a flash thru the skylight. 2 seconds later, bang.
I always had to change the underwear. Certainly took me by surprise.
Will be interested to see what Anthony reports in the morning as activity has increased NE of him.

20C and 14C DPs at Coldstream and SE winds still. Pretty much everywhere else is in dry NEs and temps in the mid to high 20s. Chuck in the Yarra ranges and hills around there and you get a mechanism for uplift and storms.

Temperature has settled here on 24C. Thick cloud band over us now, a bit of wind above the trees but not at the surface.

This is pretty crazy weather, it's getting warmer outside here after 11PM

The hot air came over us very quickly this afternoon and continues to move across us overnight so temperatures are generally rising despite no incoming solar radiation. The air mass this morning was actually quite cool so there is a big contrast there.

29.5C here. 40C is a shoo in today

30C here and Mildura 38.2C at 1AM

1.20am here is 28.1C

3am 31c here and 30-32c in the North its is HOT going to be cray hot tomorrow 40c looking good cloud will have cleared out but will the cool change come in early shall see

Wow at how many places will be 40c tomorrow NSW, VIC, SA, NT, QLD and Nw WA HUGE area and it is November INSANE

Weekend system looking good cant see 50mm falls but should see 20mm here and the odd 30mm in hills wet spots etc but not much more stalling and slowing will be good though shall be interesting

Did go up little bit in temp but has dropped back to 28C here.

GFS looking good for Sunday.

Twister have sent you a PM, did you get it mate?

Uncomfortable night's sleep, now 28.7 here yet the BOM still only has us hitting 34 today. Melbourne currently on 30 and Viewbank 31.6

GFS still has around 22-23 in Melbourne at 5pm, so if that comes off, it will be hotter than 34, cloud or not.

Oppressive comes to mind, horrible night.

SW wind coming thru the bay at the moment. This will drops temps a bit going off Avalon readings. Not sure of record Nov minimum, but 28 must be right up there!!!

Disgusting night... Really sleep deprivation weather. Hopefully some humidity later with storms.

Looking more sticky tomorrow with storms about.

21.8C minimum here and around 22C now so not too bad in the end. Did get a few large spits of rain at around midnight. BOM forecast has downgraded to 34C with a southerly change very close now. Ballarat already in W/SW. EC supports this slightly milder weather today (and probably the other models too lazy to look) so hopefully this holds and the change comes through and doesn't stall or stop at the coast for central districts.

GFS has downgraded heaps for this weekend but still has around 15-20mm by the looks of things. LAPS gives us hardly anything . EC still looking fantastic with an inch of rain here for Saturday and then another 11mm for Sunday with what looks like a bit of a secondary front coming through with the SW change. EC then has a front for Friday with another 10mm or so.

GFS still has that low coming down and then a SE convergent flow with massive falls for central and eastern areas. At this stage it's around mid week that this low starts to move over us so just 6 days out. It really has my interest.