Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Will be another very interesting day across Victoria with most parts of the state in for a chance, except the far southwest. I think I am still in with a chance, its a very unstable day, high moisture levels, and great surface temperatures. Its mid 20's here with a DP at 17. Already some development on the eastern ranges which was expected to go off first today. Expect some big thunderstorms again this afternoon, flash flooding will be the biggest concern, but damaging winds and large hail will still be possible. I will try and get my video of yesterdays severe storms here up this afternoon or tonight.

I will get the storm charts up in a moment.

From the BoM:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:44 am Saturday, 31 October 2009,
Valid until midnight on Saturday, 31 October 2009.
Moisture levels are very high, and with solar heating this afternoon thunderstorms are a risk across much of the state during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm activity is less likely over the northwest due to a likely drying trend, and the least likely over the far southwest and far southeast due to cooler onshore flow. Due to the high moisture levels, severe thunderstorms are possible over alot of Victoria today, most likely about the ranges. Heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding is the most likely severe phenomena, however large hail and damaging winds are also a risk with thunderstorms.

I can see those clouds too Tony, although that damn McMansion is blocking my view to the south west. Hope the real development doesn't slip south east again like last nights storms.

Btw guys, I'm Shane. Thought it's about time I properly introduced myself.

Thanks Jake!! That is a wicked looking chart

BLOODY HELL, things are happening very fast out there!!! Everytime I look out the window the clouds just keep getting bigger and bigger!!!

Thanks Shane

Andrew, I don't think you understand that it was tongue in cheek, alas:P You do realise that I do know that storms are much better in the NW side of town, just we get the rained out version.

Yeah looks like the best of it will be again through Melbourne and the central ranges will pick up more isolated activity at this time. But things can change...

Can see scattered Cu developing in the lower levels to the west and more organised activity about the far western horizon. Development over the ranges to my north and in the outer northeast.

Thanks Jake for the chart, obviously anywhere with significant altitude is likely to get something by the looks of it.

Oh hi Shane, hopefully I will remember the name! LOL

The longer it holds the better it will be, considering its only 1pm real time another 90 minutes should see things explode..all we need is the northerly to keep the seabreeze at bay and most areas have a good chance this arvo and evening...

Most areas will have a good arvo despite the shallow seabreeze with some cells starting to form into Bass Strait off Phillip Island moving SE this time so things will be stormy this afternoon right across Melbourne.

People seems a little subdue about proceedings today... Don't want to overcook the afternoon but we are at 33C, +3 than forecast. Can I have a replot on that

Yep, nudging -5 and 1600 atm...just a question of where they form..

I am not going to write off anything right now...it feels like 2003 and there is definitely the potential for numerous supercells to develop.

Starting to get clouds here, albeit small, but at least it's a start. Get that feeling that once things fire up it will be all hell breaking loose.Hoping for something here but am looking at doing a small chase if needed, but it won't because my house will be getting pummelled by a HP supercell.

Rhino.

Some pics from mate I went chasing with last night. Taken from his balcony in Greensborough.

Very nice pics there Sniper, especially that last shot.

Love it Wes... Well done!!!

Certainly a good set of figures there Anthony. Funny that Stormcast had 0 and 0 for us last night at 11pm

One tower to the west has blown up a lot with lots of cu developing all over now. Can see the anvil of the PI cell.

28.6 here with DP jumping between 17 and 19C. I can't imagine that combination would happen to often up here in October. Must be getting very close to seeing the first towers take off.

Sea breeze/trough is now through Mooraabin.

Hands down out here one of the best storms in the past 5 years.

- agree Karl. Up here that storm would be in the top 3 night storms I've seen in the last 10 years. Had countless flashes up here - were going off every few seconds and the highest rainfall rate I recall on my AWS. Sadly, the storm core was narrow (no more than about 10km) so the real action lasted only ~15-20 minutes.

BTW looking at latest LAPS it suggests a possible 42C for Mildura on Monday

Just went from 32 to 24 here in Moorabbin. Wasn't expecting that so soon, but always love a cool change.

Blue skies here.

Bobman wrote:Just went from 32 to 24 here in Moorabbin. Wasn't expecting that so soon, but always love a cool change.

Blue skies here.

I really hope this cool change doesn't wreck our storm chances?? I'm getting a bit worried.

...It isn't the cool change already is it!? Just a seabreeze affect?

How far off is the cool change for Melbourne?

Nice amount of low level convection nowappearing at all points of the sky but mainly to the West, and there is still some well back where the winds are light southerly so that shouldnt have too much effect hopefully.

I will explain it again..

The seabreeze is so shallow that it doesn't matter anymore. The storms are steering out of the NW so I suggest that eastern and northern areas will see more activity than the south and west but given there is precip off the Bass Coast from the mid layers, we should all see something.

34C here

Anthony Violi wrote:Nice amount of low level convection nowappearing at all points of the sky but mainly to the West, and there is still some well back where the winds are light southerly so that shouldnt have too much effect hopefully.

At least the air will still be moist and humidity will remain high.

still rising 32.6.

Convection continuing. Not the best picture but here are two points of convection. Mid level convection is the left arrow and above the house, surface convection is the right arrow which looks like soft serve.

[img][/img]

hillybilly wrote:
BTW looking at latest LAPS it suggests a possible 42C for Mildura on Monday

It happened on 2nd November 1988 so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that.