Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Loving UK and JMA thremal gradient pressure change for Friday David EC is almost there too now (after downgrading for a couple of days) but UK has a good band and swings us from strong gusty North westerlies to Cold showery South westerlies even a touch of South South westerlies in the UK prognosis either way looks like a nasty strong band change with a band or line of fairy heavish rain with hail and thunder possible and cold air behind it but should clear quickly and most of the weather should have cleared by Saturday.

Well I take my comments back, 6mm in the gauge today and some nice showers since I got home...have to replenish the tanks somehow.

Just 4.4mm's here this afternoon, a bit less than some of you received but still more than I was expecting. Takes us over 300mm's for the year anyway.

A few slow moving showers through here this evening. 3.7mm the last two days, 6.9mm for the month and 11.2mm for the past 5 days. If anything it keeps the ground constantly damp. Friday morning certainly does look wild, snow possible down to fairly low levels too IMO on Friday and then with the westerlies sill dominating and better dynamics likely thanks to the inland just starting to warm up now we could get periods with strong fronts coming through over the next fortnight. It would be nice to get some coming through mid to late afternoon for maximum instability.

Nothing really to report here today. Got slammed by a heavy shower on the Deer park bypass around 4.30pm today then the road became dry the closer I got to Caroline Springs. We missed the rain here, everything seemed to slide south east of here. Fingers crossed for Friday.

Welcome back Andrew - you've been quite. Few more showers up here - up to 9mm now.

BTW one thing to watch ahead of Friday's system is a big warm up in SA (will largely miss Vic). The thickness values get above 564 at the head of the bight on Thursday with 850Ts into the teens. That is seriously hot air for this time of year - it reached 30C today in Gascoyne Junction which is almost a July record (noting we are hardly into August) and 27C at Meekatharra (again near a record) so there is some hot air building early in inland parts.

scored about 8mm give or take here, had a very fun drive home at 5:30 tonight the rain while not overly heavy was enough to cause the windscreen wipers to struggle to keep the water away. dried out about 6:30 here and nothing since.

A little up the road from you Jase, I scored 11.5mm though at work my gauge reads 13mm which is 4km SW of me at home. Very useful falls.

Looking unstable enough for a shower developing today and models upgrading rainfall for Friday!! US has up to 50mm for a wide area of southern VIC for the sequence this next 7 days!!

Ended up with 9mm in the end - very happy. Another 17mm at Buller (which is fast approaching 150mm for the event ).

Friday hardly changed - still a very solid front though clearing quickly - time for a new thread?

Amazing divergence in the progs for the weekend. EC has a long fetch northerly while the GFS model has a long fetch southerly (cold enough for snow to sea level across Tas and near sea level across southern Vic). The EC ensemble almost looks like an average of these two scenarios. The difference in the 850Ts is near 10C across these two scenarios in parts of the southeast.

Latest US is encouraging with an increase of rainfall again mainly east of Melbourne and E Gippslanf

New thread for Friday

Just did my event total - for the ~10 days got exactly 40.0mm. Today (to ~6am) was the first dry day in Ferny Creek for more than 2 weeks.