Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Dez on Tue Aug 04, 2009 4:12 pm

I think a cumulonimbus past over me (was more to the north) (i was on the border of the rain...again) 10-20 minutes ago. Not much rain over here yet though.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Aug 04, 2009 4:38 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:so some suprises for some of us out of this system.

I was just suprised to get my forecast right... lol... I said this for today:
I think the far south could cop some locally heavy showers tomorrow morning in particular, chance of thunder,


Fantastic radar atm too for some spots - I think its a sign for a great storm season, well I think we will get a great one! Wink .

Models still looking gorgeous for this Thur/Fri period and signs of the continued wet weather pattern continuing for a while yet.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Sniper on Tue Aug 04, 2009 4:38 pm

Missed most of the 5mm here whilst on the train home. The gutters were certainly flowing when I was driving home from Box Hill.

Certainly exceeded my expectations that I had this morning.

Bring on Friday!

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:04 pm

8.6mm here in Ferny Creek (just pipped by Dunns Hill which holds the top score on 10.2mm ATM). A BIG suprise and now on 20mm for the month of August.

Funny - with the benefit of hindsight - if you look at this morning's EC the upper trough was ahead of the surface trough with a small area of upper divergence moving into central Victoria in upsliding westerlies. Clearly - just enough to destabilise things which got a help on by the arvo's heating. Had it come through at night we might have got nothing Question

Friday's is also looking very promising - not huge totals - but a solid front with a very sharp thermal trough (so very dynamic).

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:09 pm

I like that word Jake gorgeous its what I usually call my other half but now that you mentioned it like that yess it is looking rather gorgeous Friday mate Wink hopefully another nice drop for most of us.

Was out in about Karls hood this afternoon and I can vouch what he said earlier it drizzled or rained from Forrest Hill to Knox city preety much the whole time with hardly any breaks perhaps 1 or 2 short ones at the most. Then my friend and I drove home we were hit by the band from the west heavy torrenical downpour with sheets of water on the road and water gushing from the gutters on the sides of the road half way down the Eastern freeway all the way to Hoddle Street & Royal park and the Zoo.. Once I got to Flemington racecourse again & Showgrounds the roads became vastly dry again and I thought typical! Anyway had a shower here at home around 530pm and another small one right now but that heavy rain through the Inner NE and N suburbs tonight in the car was the heaviest rain I have seen all year here in Melbourne.. To me it matched the rain rate of the storms of March 15th and the Early April thunderstorm was great to see

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:14 pm

Loving UK and JMA thremal gradient pressure change for Friday David EC is almost there too now (after downgrading for a couple of days) but UK has a good band and swings us from strong gusty North westerlies to Cold showery South westerlies even a touch of South South westerlies in the UK prognosis either way looks like a nasty strong band change with a band or line of fairy heavish rain with hail and thunder possible and cold air behind it but should clear quickly and most of the weather should have cleared by Saturday.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  dagget on Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:34 pm

Well I take my comments back, 6mm in the gauge today and some nice showers since I got home...have to replenish the tanks somehow.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Dane on Tue Aug 04, 2009 6:14 pm

Just 4.4mm's here this afternoon, a bit less than some of you received but still more than I was expecting. Takes us over 300mm's for the year anyway.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:10 pm

A few slow moving showers through here this evening. 3.7mm the last two days, 6.9mm for the month and 11.2mm for the past 5 days. If anything it keeps the ground constantly damp. Friday morning certainly does look wild, snow possible down to fairly low levels too IMO on Friday and then with the westerlies sill dominating and better dynamics likely thanks to the inland just starting to warm up now we could get periods with strong fronts coming through over the next fortnight. It would be nice to get some coming through mid to late afternoon for maximum instability.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:30 pm

Nothing really to report here today. Got slammed by a heavy shower on the Deer park bypass around 4.30pm today then the road became dry the closer I got to Caroline Springs. We missed the rain here, everything seemed to slide south east of here. Fingers crossed for Friday.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:35 pm

Welcome back Andrew - you've been quite. Few more showers up here - up to 9mm now.

BTW one thing to watch ahead of Friday's system is a big warm up in SA (will largely miss Vic). The thickness values get above 564 at the head of the bight on Thursday with 850Ts into the teens. That is seriously hot air for this time of year - it reached 30C today in Gascoyne Junction which is almost a July record (noting we are hardly into August) and 27C at Meekatharra (again near a record) so there is some hot air building early in inland parts.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  AmaroK on Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:45 pm

scored about 8mm give or take here, had a very fun drive home at 5:30 tonight the rain while not overly heavy was enough to cause the windscreen wipers to struggle to keep the water away. dried out about 6:30 here and nothing since.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 3:52 am

A little up the road from you Jase, I scored 11.5mm though at work my gauge reads 13mm which is 4km SW of me at home. Very useful falls.

Looking unstable enough for a shower developing today and models upgrading rainfall for Friday!! US has up to 50mm for a wide area of southern VIC for the sequence this next 7 days!!
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:56 am

Ended up with 9mm in the end - very happy. Another 17mm at Buller (which is fast approaching 150mm for the event Shocked ).

Friday hardly changed - still a very solid front though clearing quickly - time for a new thread?

Amazing divergence in the progs for the weekend. EC has a long fetch northerly while the GFS model has a long fetch southerly (cold enough for snow to sea level across Tas and near sea level across southern Vic). The EC ensemble almost looks like an average of these two scenarios. The difference in the 850Ts is near 10C across these two scenarios in parts of the southeast.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:05 am

Latest US is encouraging with an increase of rainfall again mainly east of Melbourne and E Gippslanf
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:07 am

New thread for Friday
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:48 am

Just did my event total - for the ~10 days got exactly 40.0mm. Today (to ~6am) was the first dry day in Ferny Creek for more than 2 weeks.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

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