Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:54 am

Reckon I could almost squeeze 0.1mm out of those showers up here - still very mild for us though with 14C already. Big warm up now to our west with lots of 25C back through SA. 21C looks a pretty good pick for Melbourne.

Worth noting that this winter we have had no cold outbreaks of any significance which is unprecedented.
- spot on Andrew. We've only had ~4 cold days all year and about 96 hours of real winter weather (most of it in the first week of July). One thing that illustrates this is that Blue Ribbon at Hotham hasn't open all year effectively meaning the snow line hasn't seriously dropped down to 1400m - a friend in a lodge up there reckons this has never happened before. Similarly Lake Mt and Donna Buang have had shocking seasons (the ski industry might spin otherwise).

I would keep an eye out for a cold outbreak in about a week. The long wave trough is progged to start pushing up some very cold air south of Perth, so you never know....

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Aug 15, 2009 12:28 pm

do you think we could actually say we have not had a winter this year? Really we have gone from Autumn straight to spring in my opinion

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  DarkEye on Sat Aug 15, 2009 12:58 pm

norfolk wrote:do you think we could actually say we have not had a winter this year? Really we have gone from Autumn straight to spring in my opinion

Nope, my end of the world has had quite a bit of cold weather.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:27 pm

19c here . I expect the temp to stay stable now tonight until the change arrives in the morning so somewhere between 16 to 20c the whole period given the warm air and windy conditions tonight.

I expect a cold outbreak perhaps in 10 days time Tony apart from that looks like we may go from Autumn straight to Spring if we haven't already the problem the past 6 weeks in particular has been the LWT has been stuck near Perth with most the fronts bearing their brunt over there but as they approach SE Australia they are in a weakening mode or to Westerly orinenated like Andrew said earlier we have lacked alot of SW to SSW winds this Winter we have hardly had a good or strong front with a strong punch ripping up from well South of Adelaide and moving NE or NNE towards us all Winter infact really all year.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Luken on Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:28 pm

Totally agree about not having a winter. Has been very tame compared to what you think of when discussing Melbourne's "normal" winters....what ever they are these days who knows?? But anyway...

Latest LAPS and MLAPS are out and have, as you all predicted would happen really scaled back the rainfall. As has been said West facing slopes and the ranges will be the best. 5-10mm throughout the rest...bugger. Was looking forward to a nice soaking.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  firestorm on Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:54 pm

got 0.2mm sumhow out of this mornings weather other then that a great day clear skies not to much winand the temp hovered around the 20 mark most of the day. Its spring weather out there today for sure.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:51 pm

15.8C for a max in Ferny Creek in the end. Was a great day in the garden Very Happy Always looked like the real heat would go over us tonight.

I anticipate a lot of early season records set or just missed through the west of Vic (Nhill's 25.4C is an early season record, Mildura's 27.6C is just short, vis 28.7C). BTW one amazing ob is Renmark just across the border which got to 29.2C which suggests with slightly different timing on the front the Vic August record could have fallen Rolling Eyes

Anyway now eyes turn to the front which should a ripper (though perhaps not for rain). Meso-LAPS has 220m winds of 50knots just ahead of the change and the front just west of Melbourne at 10am. LI are also touching 0 so potential for storms on the front Very Happy Anticipate about 10mm in Ferny Creek at this stage.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:02 pm

To be honest DJ I am glad we have avoided this quite sick of beating warm or dry records the less we get the better for whatever reason

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:11 pm

Well quite a few thunderstorms developing in the west at the moment along a bit of a trough and thanks to diurnal heating reaching record potential! Very squally northerly winds are most likely to hit Melbourne as that band of thunder-virga moves into the area. Anticipate some squalls near 60 knots up at Mt D and 50-55 knot gusts through Melbourne itself.

I think a reasonable rain band will form as the front crosses the region. Not huge falls but quite a squally period of rain with winds shifting westerly tomorrow.

Beyond that - similar conditions about on Wednesday as winds head back to the north and temps back into the low to mid 20s.

Better prospects of rainfall on Thursday.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:22 pm

A very pleasant 14.6C here today. I agree with John, every day we avoid any sort of heat record is a good day.

Thrilled it didn't even nudge 20C in Melbourne today, although it may tonight as the NW winds become severe and bring in more warm air.
Incredible that despite the extreme record breaking dry we have had and given the horrific nature of last summer the landscape has really greened up purely based on some half decent falls over the last month and a half and the warming temps. Just shows what little moisture it takes for grass to grow.

Squall line tomorrow I reckon and in that scenario isolated locations might get significantly more than what the models say generally.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  SC on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:47 pm

I wouldn't go far as to say we haven't had Winter this year. Yes I have not seen a serious frost at my place this year.

I think DJ has hit the nail on the head. I went skiing at Mt Hotham ten years straight with my family, and always in the last two weeks of August.

The Blue Ribbon run was always the key to the success of the season. If that run was open for a couple of days at that time, you would say "not bad". Never open "could do better". Open for the whole week,"great season". The Blue Ribbon run always held the key and still does because it's below the main road and faces East not West. It's very sheltered.

Nice work DJ.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Lily on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:56 pm

Hi everyone, back from another work trip to Perth where it rained and rained and rained - it's looking very green over there which is good news. I swear I need to hire myself out as a drought-breaker, everytime I go interstate the heavens open up! Shame I can't work my magic here though.

Reached 19.2 here today, around 3.30-4 this afternoon and an ever so light smattering of rain earlier this morning. Other than that, windy, windy, windy!

Is it just me or does the wind seem to be picking up even more now? Lights have flickered on and off here in the last half hour.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:00 pm

Hey Lily,

Up the road there are some very strong gusts!!! Going to be a wild night! Smile
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  SC on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:25 pm

Just had a gust of 54km/h, she's going to be a wild night. Cool.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Madmel on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:31 pm

Certainlty was a nice day once the sun came out and moderate winds. Quite warm for winter, but the winds have picked up about a hour ago and boy the gusts are pretty darn wild out there. Might be a wild night tonight Shocked

Be safe guys

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:34 pm

Well I am glad it is a wild night. I had two teeth pulled this afternoon and I need some entertainment!!!

Looking closely to that convection kicked off by the warm afternoon which is heading through the Grampians. Could be some very gusty winds amongst that region.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:38 pm

Wind here atm is no stronger than it has been all day, of course it will pick up heaps between now and when the front comes through. Temp has dropped down to 11.8C.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Aug 15, 2009 6:34 pm

Yeah I don't think the winds have picked up, they seem just as strong as during the day. Still not alot of fun though. And I suppose I must admit, when I was talking about not having a winter, living where I am, it just seems like it has been too mild for a Melbourne winter. Yes there have been some cold mornings, yes there has been some rain but now that we are in Mid August, I don't seem to be able to look back and say, 'now that was a winter to remember!'

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Aug 15, 2009 7:03 pm

take that back! These winds have really picked up now! Very loud out there!

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Lily on Sat Aug 15, 2009 7:34 pm

Told 'ya so! Razz Yowchie, Karl, two teeth?!

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 15, 2009 7:52 pm

Yeah a bit sore and swollen but hopefully won't last too long....I am new too all this teeth pulling fun Razz

--------------------------

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 9:47 pm EST on Saturday 15 August 2009.

Weather Situation
An active cold front will reach the western Victorian border Sunday morning, and then sweep across the remainder of the State during Sunday to clear eastern areas late afternoon. Strong to gale force northerly winds will develop overnight ahead of the change, shifting cooler squally west to northwesterly with the passage of the front.



Damaging winds are forecast averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to around 110km/h are forecast for the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and parts of the Mallee and Northeast forecast districts. Isolated thunderstorms are likely with and ahead of the change with wind squalls possible to 120 km/h.

Wind gusts are now reaching 98 km/h at Mount William and 91 km/h at Dunns Hill.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  SC on Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:54 pm

Loving this wind, nothing much under a 35km/h gust being recorded on the weather station.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  DC449 on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:00 pm

Gee it is warm for this time of year
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:10 pm

I think with the warmest air now moving over, that temps will maintain they're values and may even go up a degree or two into the early hours.

Some light showers here presently. Wind has eased temporarily as the mid level virga moves across, but once it clears through it is going to get very windy!!
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  SC on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:16 pm

Just had a gust of 69km/h. Been a while since I've had one that high.

17C outside temp.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

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