Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

so when does these thunderstorms actually eventuate?

Even Scoresby AWS recorded 85kmh!! That's unheard of and could be a record!!! I usually add 20kmh to any peak winds because it's sheltered.

Anyhow recorded 110kmh winds here. Not much rain but that wind was entertaining. Storms and showers increasing after 1pm James.

That was one of the fiercest wind storms I have seen. Again, luckily this weather wasn't in late Jan or early Feb, would be absolutely horrendous fire conditions.

Very cold outside now, hail is a given.

Quote from a Herald Sun reader:

"It just created a giant whirlwind between our office buildings on St Kilda Road, I saw tree branches up to a metre long get sucked 30 feet straight up into it and birds get caught trying to fly out ... Freaky stuff !!" - Sean 10:07am

Leasy wrote:Yeah, it was a big tree, the top branch has come off (will post a photo tonight) and the branch itself is as big and thick as a small tree!!

It was one of those ghost gums, we were lucky it also just missed our air-con unit (temporary one - we had a major fire at work 4 weeks ago, and only my area has reoccupied), and our power flickered for a good 20 minutes - no power outages though.

Twas pretty bad out there!

Glad you're okay and your car! Good to see the pics now there was no damage.

John, how do you reckon we will fair for the rest of the day? Just so much wind and little rain, even though the wind was something; but who cares we need rain! Haha.

floydlove wrote:

Leasy wrote:Yeah, it was a big tree, the top branch has come off (will post a photo tonight) and the branch itself is as big and thick as a small tree!!

It was one of those ghost gums, we were lucky it also just missed our air-con unit (temporary one - we had a major fire at work 4 weeks ago, and only my area has reoccupied), and our power flickered for a good 20 minutes - no power outages though.

Twas pretty bad out there!

Glad you're okay and your car! Good to see the pics now there was no damage.

John, how do you reckon we will fair for the rest of the day? Just so much wind and little rain, even though the wind was something; but who cares we need rain! Haha.

Yeah, everyone was fine, we just saw it come down from our desks - lucky our department looks out to the car park! Will definitely post pics when I get home tonight (the usb cable is at home), was very WTF!

WOW amazing, is this an error?

Avalon 7.8 degrees wind gust of 120kph????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

21/11:45am 7.8 -5.8 2.3 68 2.3 WNW 63 120 34 65 997.1 1.2
21/11:44am 11.3 -1.2 5.8 69 2.6 WNW 61 120 33 65 996.9 0.8
21/11:37am 15.6 4.2 7.6 59 4.0 WNW 57 76 31 41 996.0 0.4

Avalon has another small cell passing over

floydlove wrote:

Leasy wrote:Yeah, it was a big tree, the top branch has come off (will post a photo tonight) and the branch itself is as big and thick as a small tree!!

It was one of those ghost gums, we were lucky it also just missed our air-con unit (temporary one - we had a major fire at work 4 weeks ago, and only my area has reoccupied), and our power flickered for a good 20 minutes - no power outages though.

Twas pretty bad out there!

Glad you're okay and your car! Good to see the pics now there was no damage.

John, how do you reckon we will fair for the rest of the day? Just so much wind and little rain, even though the wind was something; but who cares we need rain! Haha.

Glad your Okay Leasy.

Gday Floyd how u doin? Probably get a few showers modest chance of hail about but I expect little to nothing here mabye some of the eastern suburbs could pick up few mm's. I also expect the weekend to be largely fine in Melbourne the cold air will dive away to the South and SE while the cloudband will stay laregly over Southern NSW and NW and N Vic but expect nothing here in NNW winds won't be til Early Monday we will get our next bout of weather I believe.

I think you're right on the money there John, glad to hear your ok leasy. I think I would have been luck to score >0.5mm out of that front, it was a cracker for wind though. I'm very sheltered here and it was crazy bananas.

Just had another small shower move through. Winds picked up significantly again as it moved over, rain was completely horizontal. Very unusual weather, and making it very very hard to concentrate on work.

Just windy here since last night. No rain to be heard of. But nothing to big in the matter of wind gusts either thankfully.

For all the talk of this being a strong front, it's had more bark than bite, as very little rain and a lot of wind, which was down my way for most of last night, it rained till about 1am and then stopped, only to return about quarter past 6.

Hopefully you guys in northern and central areas are seeing good rain.

Wont be able to report any obs from Woodend until I get home from work but we had 5mm this morning and the radar has been looking promising.

nothing exciting here other than lots of wind !

dont expect much if any thunder, weather has changed today

not really any rain either so far...just sunny and windy

3mm for Ferny Creek (count last night's effort). Simply unbelievable that such a strong system managed to get shreaded over central Victoria and give so little. Been blacked out in the Dandenongs for about 5 hours so far.

And where it does rain it falls in the wrong places close to 50mm since last night at the Snow resorts what a shocker of a season up there just gets worse

That wind is still shocking out there, got blown into the factory wall getting out of the car. Had a clear view of the next cell on the ring road looking towards the west. I'm expecting it to break up before it gets here. Shocking weather, so much for all the rain that was predicted for this event.

Another big 1mm out of this lot pffffft

This wind is a shocker! Was pretty wild this morning about 10am. Massive coldies around but more in the South from here.

Johnno wrote:And where it does rain it falls in the wrong places close to 50mm since last night at the Snow resorts what a shocker of a season up there just gets worse

Thankfully I was there last week not this... phewww. And Floyed, thanks for the comment mate, very much appreciated.

Well we had 12.6mm of rainfall this morning to 9am, and ever since we have been seeing squally showers. Not sure how much more rain, but it would be over the 5mm mark again. Our dams are over flowing, and I seriously wish I could send this rain to where it is needed the most, like John's area for example.

I will have a detailed forecast coming up soon for the next several days.

Taken at 5pm in Lilydale

Great photo mate. A cell just past to our northeast, and there is evident cg strikes. They are pretty cool ones too, blue colour.

Here is my forecast as promised...

Remainder of Friday:
Scattered showers across southern areas contracting east and south overnight. Locally heavy showers with thunder and hail. Patchy rain in the Far East clearing tonight. Strong to locally gale force westerly winds, easing overnight from the west.

Saturday:
Partly cloudy with isolated showers developing from the west, and tending to patchy rain over the southwest from about the late morning or early afternoon as a weak front just passes south of the state. Isolated thunderstorms also possible during the afternoon. We should also see fresh to locally strong northwesterly winds across the state.

Sunday:
Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen on Sunday ahead of another strong front. We should see cloud increase from the west, but generally partly cloudy conditions ahead of the main cloud associated with the frontal system. Isolated showers are possible in the northeast i'd say, but rain areas and isolated thunderstorms should develop over the southwestern region from about midday.

Monday:
The front comes shooting through on Monday, turning strong to gale force northwesterly winds more westerly, but at a similar strength. I still think a Severe Weather Warning will be issued for the Sunday night/Monday period. Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms over the state will move through with widespread showers to follow, mostly on and south of the ranges, with local hail and cold-air thunderstorms thrown into the mix aswel. Squall lines I think to will be a feature on Monday, persisting well after the rain band too. Another thing is we should see colder temperatures finally develop, and snowfalls finally on the resorts bringing them back to life, as well as snow down to 850-900 meters in general.

Tuesday:
Another strong cold front should come flying through with the persisted widespread showers extending throughout and tending to rain areas south of the ranges, particularly southwest and Gippsland region. Isolated thunderstorms should also develop near the change again, and follow the rain with hail developing as well, particularly for southern parts. Squall lines again I fear will be a thing to watch for. Winds in general should be strong to gale force west to northwest shifting southwesterly following the frontal system. Snow as well continuing to fall thanks to the colder temperatures down to about 800 meters.

Wednesday:
We should still have significantly strong southwesterly airflow reaching gale force at times, so expect to see scattered showers on and south of the ranges with isolated showers in the north, clearing in the northwest. Local hail and thunder as well should continue in the south.

Further Outlook:
Most models seem to agree that a high pressure system will move over New South Wales on Thursday, extending a ridge into Victoria allowing for some clearence. Morning drizzle or isolated showers will clear from the coast to a mostly sunny day. It's a little messy after that with perhaps another system developing on the weekend, and hopefully something interesting on the Monday as I will be doing work experience with the forecasters from then.