Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Hi everyone.

It felt like 2005 out here today with the high winds and sun (in case some of you don't remember, the summer of late 04 to early 05 was a big storm season), apart from the wind it was rather nice but some dark clouds in my neck of the woods ATM.

Well I think you may get some rain and thunderstorms tonight DE That may be a good thing

Models flipping all over the place but a general relaxation in the models, but reasonable rainfall still likely across the region tomorrow and Friday. Not sure on the showers forecast on Friday but we will wait and see.


Latest US has dropped rainfall back by a 3rd but could in the last few runs the overall trend has been for 50-75mm across Melbourne for the week and I think that is still likely.

Thanks Karl.

I too think we are going to be in for a BIG storm season. Just a gut feeling but things do remind me of 04/05 too Dark Eye.

Anyway, currently, some convection occurring to my west with the advancement of the cloud band and trough, so am looking forward to seeing a little rain overnight. Also expect to see isolated thunderstorms popping up over the west too over the next several hours, things may be good enough for nocturnal action, particularly SW.

Nice day down these parts although windy at time quit warm in the sun! Now some high cloud starting to appear overhead! Looking forward to the comming weather and hopefully this time plentyof rain!

Latest EC is in and suggests we might be pleasantly surprised with the rainfall in Melbourne the next 48 hours (http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Melbourne/hour_by_hour.html). It has ~12mm for Thu and another ~5mm for Friday. Sure it won't break the drought - but that would make one of the better falls for the year and put the August average within sight. GFS looks pretty similar. Also looks very windy on Friday morning, though not nearly as bad as last Sunday. Would hope for (about) 25mm in Ferny Creek with this sequence.

Already some decent showers on the radar on the border.

Still yet to look closely beyond Friday (as the progs are a bit jumpy ).

Interesting that tonights EC run has a low spawning in WA and moving SE in typical spring fashion...very early i know as its towards the end of the sequence but i also suspect we are for something special in the next few months...be very surprised if its not very active.

Interesting UKMet goes the other way DJ and has about 5mm tomorrow and 5-10mm Friday so which one do we believe?

Interesting UKMet goes the other way DJ and has about 5mm tomorrow and 5-10mm Friday so which one do we believe?

I'd usually back EC over UKMet though they are both in the top 2 models (GFS/JMA are a tussle for number 3). JMA seems to sit between the two of them http://expert.weatheronline.net.nz/daten/profi/nz/jma/prec.html . Both EC and UK do have a tendency (particularly UK) to under do showery rainfall, though GFS goes the other way an produces way to much at times.

Rather mild up here today - 14.4C with a north wind picking up. Feel like late September rather than late August for us.

PS still looks very showery/unsettled right through to end of next week.

EC was spot on, the areas of rain are literally building and back building right over us at dawn, and started developing at 2.30am when I got up. Not too much in it but it all helps.

Constant & steady light rain here since I woke at around 5.30am. Nice sound to wake up to (but makes it hard to get out of bed!).

Fairly steady rain here.

Be interesting to see what a little heating does to the second half of this band. Could see some thunderstorms develop this afternoon in and on the back edge of the rain.

1mm this morning (so far) and still falling steadily. Should be 5-10mm in this lot looking at the radar. Looks like Cape Nelson has top scored with 11mm, and lots of 2-5mm to our west.

Would not be surprised to hear some rumbles this afternoon with LAPS showing a large area of sub-zero LI moving through western and central areas during the arvo. With these mild temperature could be rather spring like (looks we think alike Karl!).

EC has ramped up tomorrow also (to about 10mm) and then showers/rain right through the weekend in a cyclonic NW flow (which finally goes almost W-SW on Monday). Would be disappointed not to see 40mm+ up here by next Wednesday.

I notice that the air is not super cold in that NW stream on the weekend and with some heating - there could be some locally heavy showers about the divide spilling south of the ranges later on Saturday and Sunday.

Lookin promising

Good steady quiet heavy rain waking up this morning and still comming down almost 3mm in the guage

Just had an hour's worth of rain. It's stopped now.

Looking at the radar (6hr loop) I would have expected at least 5mm to have fallen. But I am pretty sure that only 1mm or so is in the guage. Puzzling.......

Anthony Violi wrote:EC was spot on, the areas of rain are literally building and back building right over us at dawn, and started developing at 2.30am when I got up. Not too much in it but it all helps.

Didn't EC have 12mm for Melbourne today and UKMet 5mm? EC is way off the mark dude unless we get some random stray thunderies UK has pinned this one hands down. With all due respect DJ I tend to find UK better than EC in my eyes its usually more right than EC I agree it underestimates in onshore showery streams but apart from that does very well when it comes to rainbands UK is streets ahead of other models with it comes to rainbands EC a distant 2nd then other models even further behind that.

Woke to a nice welcoming sound of rain this morning....so i went back to sleep. haha.
Had 4mm in the gauge as off 8:30am.
Looking very thundery this afternoon. I dont think heating should be a problem. And going by whats out my window atm, there is plenty of moisture, and instability out there.

Still early John - let's see what the afternoon brings.

I like what Rikki posted - makes me think we are far from seeing us clear.

So Karl, for central areas, what are the magical Temp and DP numbers required to get things "firing". I thought we'd need a minimum 17/18, with a DP of min. 13.

Sniper wrote:So Karl, for central areas, what are the magical Temp and DP numbers required to get things "firing". I thought we'd need a minimum 17/18, with a DP of min. 13.

Well atm, Bendigo has just tipped 10C's and the sun came blaring out. So temp will rise quite quickly. And the DP is sitting steady on 7C. I'd say if that came to about 11-13 yeah and top of at least 17C's should be in with a nice spring storm setup...

Seems the rainfall predictions for the whole event has been down graded by the looks of Elders website forecasts.

So we will be expecting some more amazing photos then RP

Rik has nailed it. That would be ideal. We will see how we go.. Will know more by 1pm -if anyone sees clear air convection let us know.

4.4mm this morning.

Does seem a bit unstable out there - could be in for a great one! Lucky for me I have my camera fully charged and ready to go today, just need some stuff firing up.

Had a bit of rain this morning which is always good, has cleared up and can see some unstable-looking skies - so fingers crossed!